BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Raiders at Jets
RaidersLas Vegas3-4away
BEAVER projects22
MetLife Stadium
JetsNew York2-5home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERNYJ −1.5, leanleanOver 45.5, leanleanBEAVER gives NYJ 60% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Raiders
Jets

BEAVER’s card

Lean
NYJ −1.5, lean2.0 points off the line
  • Over 45.5 lean, 1.8 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (LV–NYJ)22–25–
SpreadNYJ −3.5NYJ −1.5NYJ −1.5
Total47.345.5Over 45.5
NYJ win chance60%−110
LV by 8+
19%
LV by 1–7
20%
NYJ by 1–7
24%
NYJ by 8+
37%

Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Jets (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Las Vegas Raiders
PassingYds
Kirk Cousins QB254193–303
RushingYds
Ashton Jeanty RB5634–78▲
Mike Washington Jr. RB196–39
ReceivingRecYds
Brock Bowers TE5.14–76340–89
Tre Tucker WR3.82–55029–76
Michael Mayer TE3.42–53417–52
Ashton Jeanty RB3.62–53019–47
Jalen Nailor WR1.41–2164–31
New York Jets
PassingYds
Geno Smith QB222179–288
RushingYds
Braelon Allen RB5229–83▲
Isaiah Davis RB81–22
Geno Smith QB50–11
ReceivingRecYds
Garrett Wilson WR4.23–65130–76
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3.32–54726–78
Mason Taylor TE2.81–42511–46
Adonai Mitchell WR2.41–32411–46
Braelon Allen RB2.01–3134–25

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.058 #26Offense EPA / play−0.061 #28
+0.036 #24Defense EPA / play allowed+0.039 #28
−2.4% #25Offense success rate−0.4% #17
+2.2% #27Defense success rate allowed+1.3% #25
−0.030 #19Passing EPA / dropback−0.074 #24
+0.057 #27Pass defense EPA allowed+0.101 #29
−0.100 #31Rushing EPA / carry−0.047 #24
+0.027 #23Rush defense EPA allowed−0.027 #10
−0.064 #27Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.040 #23
+0.049 #28Early-down EPA allowed+0.028 #25
Scoring and special teams
−0.4 #18Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.0 #28
+3.1 #30Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #21
−0.52 #25Special teams EPA / game+0.31 #11

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Las Vegas Raiders
46%+12%
75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Brock BowersTE
33%▲ +13%
31% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
Tre TuckerWR
29%+11%
21% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
19%+2%
Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
15%+9%
Jets have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
Jalen NailorWR
13%+4%
Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 2 more than usual
New York Jets
36%+13%
35% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
34%▲ +15%
26% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
24%▲ +16%
Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Raiders' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Mason TaylorTE
19%+14%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Raiders have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5)
Kenyon SadiqTE
17%+23%
Raiders have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual
16%+8%
31% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 24 points, 5 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Raiders
Kirk Cousins
EPA per dropback +0.04
PROJECTED STARTER · Jets
Geno Smith
EPA per dropback −0.02

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Raiders: last 5 games

L21-35
vsRams
Missed
L30-33
vsBills
Covered
L17-45
atPatriots
Missed
L27-30
vsChiefs
Covered
W35-27
atSaints
Covered

Jets: last 5 games

L25-28
vsDolphins
Missed
L19-26
atPatriots
Covered
W17-12
vsBrowns
Covered
L12-23
atBears
Missed
L24-31
atLions
Push

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.15−0.11−0.07−0.03+0.01Entering week12345678Las Vegas Raiders · 1: −0.10Las Vegas Raiders · 2: −0.07Las Vegas Raiders · 3: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 4: −0.03Las Vegas Raiders · 5: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 6: −0.06Las Vegas Raiders · 7: −0.06Las Vegas Raiders · 8: −0.09New York Jets · 1: −0.14New York Jets · 2: −0.09New York Jets · 3: −0.07New York Jets · 4: −0.09New York Jets · 5: −0.10New York Jets · 6: −0.09New York Jets · 7: −0.09New York Jets · 8: −0.10
● Las Vegas Raiders● New York Jets