BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Chargers at Rams
ChargersLos Angeles0-6away
BEAVER projects19
SoFi Stadium, indoors
RamsLos Angeles3-4home
BEAVER projects27
BEAVEROver 44.5, leanleanLA −6.5, leanleanBEAVER gives LA 73% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Chargers
Rams

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 44.5, lean1.7 points off the line
  • LA −6.5 lean, 1.7 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (LAC–LA)19–27–
SpreadLA −8.2LA −6.5LA −6.5
Total46.244.5Over 44.5
LA win chance73%−285
LAC by 8+
11%
LAC by 1–7
16%
LA by 1–7
23%
LA by 8+
50%

Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Rams (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Los Angeles Chargers
PassingYds
Justin Herbert QB207160–258
RushingYds
Omarion Hampton RB3923–59
Justin Herbert QB2412–38
Kimani Vidal RB167–33
ReceivingRecYds
Quentin Johnston WR2.51–43314–58
Tre Harris WR2.21–3237–42
Ladd McConkey WR1.61–3187–37
Theo Wease Jr. WR1.20–3183–40
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR1.61–3174–37
Los Angeles Rams
PassingYds
Matthew Stafford QB272202–311
RushingYds
Kyren Williams RB6242–86
Blake Corum RB4220–65
ReceivingRecYds
Puka Nacua WR6.44–97545–116
Tyler Higbee TE2.81–42612–43
Colby Parkinson TE2.61–42412–42
Kyren Williams RB2.82–4188–33
Konata Mumpfield WR1.10–3151–34

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
−0.128 #32Offense EPA / play+0.077 #4
−0.046 #5Defense EPA / play allowed−0.042 #6
−3.6% #29Offense success rate+4.1% #2
−1.0% #6Defense success rate allowed−0.6% #11
−0.163 #32Passing EPA / dropback+0.067 #10
−0.091 #4Pass defense EPA allowed−0.035 #8
−0.065 #26Rushing EPA / carry+0.074 #6
+0.010 #21Rush defense EPA allowed−0.029 #9
−0.107 #32Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.106 #1
−0.037 #6Early-down EPA allowed−0.006 #17
Scoring and special teams
−3.8 #31Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.0 #9
−0.2 #16Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.0 #11
−0.66 #28Special teams EPA / game−0.70 #29

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Los Angeles Chargers
33%−10%
63% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
23%−6%
Vegas has the Chargers at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
20%−1%
Vegas has the Chargers at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual
Kimani VidalRB
19%−7%
Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chargers at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual
15%−8%
26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Chargers at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual
13%−4%
Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chargers at about 19 points, 3 fewer than usual
Los Angeles Rams
64%−1%
65% of the team's carries inside the 10
Puka NacuaWR
49%−1%
27% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Blake CorumRB
36%−3%
22%−6%
Tyler HigbeeTE
22%−7%
18%−5%
A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Chargers
Justin Herbert
EPA per dropback −0.02
PROJECTED STARTER · Rams
Matthew Stafford
EPA per dropback +0.10

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Chargers: last 5 games

L6-22
atChiefs
Missed
L17-23
vsBroncos
Missed
L23-30
atSeahawks
Push
L16-24
atBills
Missed
L14-26
vsRaiders
Missed

Rams: last 5 games

W35-21
atRaiders
Covered
L16-18
vsCardinals
Missed
L34-37
vsBills
Missed
W24-20
atEagles
Covered
L26-30
atBroncos
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.10−0.04+0.02+0.08+0.14Entering week12345678Los Angeles Chargers · 1: +0.02Los Angeles Chargers · 2: −0.03Los Angeles Chargers · 3: −0.06Los Angeles Chargers · 4: −0.04Los Angeles Chargers · 5: −0.06Los Angeles Chargers · 6: −0.07Los Angeles Chargers · 7: −0.08Los Angeles Chargers · 8: −0.08Los Angeles Rams · 1: +0.09Los Angeles Rams · 2: +0.06Los Angeles Rams · 3: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 4: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 5: +0.13Los Angeles Rams · 6: +0.12Los Angeles Rams · 7: +0.09Los Angeles Rams · 8: +0.12
● Los Angeles Chargers● Los Angeles Rams