BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Chiefs at Broncos
ChiefsKansas City5-1away
BEAVER projects21
Empower Field at Mile High
BroncosDenver5-2home
BEAVER projects21
BEAVERDEN +1.5, leanleanOver 41.5, leanleanBEAVER gives DEN 52% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Chiefs
Broncos

BEAVER’s card

Lean
DEN +1.5, lean2.2 points off the line
  • Over 41.5 lean, 0.6 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (KC–DEN)21–21–
SpreadDEN −0.7KC −1.5DEN +1.5
Total42.141.5Over 41.5
DEN win chance52%+105
KC by 8+
26%
KC by 1–7
22%
DEN by 1–7
23%
DEN by 8+
29%

Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Broncos (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Kansas City Chiefs
PassingYds
Patrick Mahomes QB208166–268
RushingYds
Kenneth Walker III RB7949–110
Patrick Mahomes QB144–24
Emmett Johnson RB60–18
ReceivingRecYds
Travis Kelce TE3.92–54223–65
Rashee Rice WR3.82–53722–65
Xavier Worthy WR3.52–53618–57
Kenneth Walker III RB2.51–4157–27
Noah Gray TE1.41–3122–28
Denver Broncos
PassingYds
Bo Nix QB226160–266
RushingYds
J.K. Dobbins RB3819–55
Jonah Coleman RB2812–49
Bo Nix QB178–32
ReceivingRecYds
Jaylen Waddle WR3.52–53619–58
Courtland Sutton WR2.52–42916–51
RJ Harvey RB2.41–4186–34
Evan Engram TE1.61–3122–27
Marvin Mims Jr. WR1.70–3123–31

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.078 #3Offense EPA / play+0.003 #14
+0.005 #17Defense EPA / play allowed−0.061 #3
+2.7% #9Offense success rate−2.6% #26
−0.7% #10Defense success rate allowed−4.3% #3
+0.047 #12Passing EPA / dropback−0.030 #20
+0.033 #24Pass defense EPA allowed−0.110 #3
+0.124 #1Rushing EPA / carry+0.049 #9
−0.022 #11Rush defense EPA allowed+0.016 #22
+0.056 #9Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.010 #15
−0.022 #11Early-down EPA allowed−0.034 #7
Scoring and special teams
−0.1 #17Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.6 #19
−3.2 #3Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.6 #6
+0.10 #14Special teams EPA / game−0.14 #18

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Kansas City Chiefs
52%−4%
79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
Travis KelceTE
29%−7%
20% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
23%−12%
Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
Rashee RiceWR
17%−6%
22% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
14%−6%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 22 points, 2 fewer than usual
10%−7%
33% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Denver Broncos
J.K. DobbinsRB
28%−10%
57% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual
RJ HarveyRB
25%−14%
Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual
25%−13%
Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual
Bo NixQB
22%−2%
Vegas has the Broncos at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual
20%−7%
44% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
20%−6%
23% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
EPA per dropback +0.10
PROJECTED STARTER · Broncos
Bo Nix
EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Chiefs: last 5 games

L3-20
atSeahawks
Missed
W22-6
vsChargers
Covered
W30-27
atRaiders
Missed
W24-10
atDolphins
Covered
W33-30
vsColts
Missed

Broncos: last 5 games

W30-16
atCardinals
Covered
W17-14
vsSeahawks
Covered
W23-17
atChargers
Covered
L14-24
at49ers
Missed
W30-26
vsRams
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.05+0.08+0.10Entering week12345678Kansas City Chiefs · 1: +0.02Kansas City Chiefs · 2: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 3: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 4: +0.07Kansas City Chiefs · 5: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 6: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 7: +0.10Kansas City Chiefs · 8: +0.07Denver Broncos · 1: +0.05Denver Broncos · 2: +0.00Denver Broncos · 3: +0.02Denver Broncos · 4: +0.03Denver Broncos · 5: +0.03Denver Broncos · 6: +0.04Denver Broncos · 7: +0.04Denver Broncos · 8: +0.06
● Kansas City Chiefs● Denver Broncos