NFL scores › Week 8 › Browns at Steelers
BEAVERPIT −3.5, best betbest betOver 39.5, leanleanBEAVER gives PIT 70% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Browns
Steelers
BrownsSteelersBEAVER’s card
Best betPIT −3.5, best bet3.3 points off the line
- Over 39.5 lean, 1.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CLE–PIT) | 17–24 | – | |
| Spread | PIT −6.8 | PIT −3.5 | PIT −3.5 |
| Total | 41.0 | 39.5 | Over 39.5 |
| PIT win chance | 70% | −180 |
CLE by 8+
13%
CLE by 1–7
17%
PIT by 1–7
23%
PIT by 8+
46%
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Steelers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Player projections
typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props| Cleveland Browns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Deshaun Watson QB | 206165–254 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Quinshon Judkins RB | 5232–73 | ||
| Deshaun Watson QB | 2311–37 | ||
| Audric Estimé RB | 229–43 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Denzel Boston WR | 3.12–4 | 4222–71 | |
| KC Concepcion WR | 4.13–6 | 4224–69 | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | 3.72–5 | 3821–57 | |
| Jerry Jeudy WR | 2.31–4 | 2310–41 | |
| Quinshon Judkins RB | 2.31–4 | 124–27 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Aaron Rodgers QB | 220170–279 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Jaylen Warren RB | 6140–88 | ||
| Rico Dowdle RB | 3114–53 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| DK Metcalf WR | 4.13–5 | 4928–75 | |
| Germie Bernard WR | 3.82–6 | 3620–58 | |
| Pat Freiermuth TE | 2.51–4 | 198–36 | |
| Jaylen Warren RB | 2.61–4 | 199–32 | |
| Darnell Washington TE | 1.71–3 | 133–29 | |
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.Efficiency
−0.085 #30Offense EPA / play−0.022 #19
−0.048 #4Defense EPA / play allowed+0.004 #16
−3.8% #30Offense success rate−1.3% #21
−2.3% #5Defense success rate allowed−0.0% #17
−0.118 #30Passing EPA / dropback−0.092 #28
−0.079 #5Pass defense EPA allowed−0.006 #17
−0.044 #22Rushing EPA / carry+0.106 #2
−0.006 #15Rush defense EPA allowed−0.011 #13
−0.069 #28Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.012 #19
−0.046 #3Early-down EPA allowed−0.027 #9
Scoring and special teams
−3.8 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.9 #21
−0.8 #12Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.7 #8
−0.46 #23Special teams EPA / game+0.64 #5
Touchdown scorers
▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD boardCleveland Browns
62% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
21% of the team's end-zone targets
71% of the team's end-zone targets
22% of the team's targets
44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Pittsburgh Steelers
41% of the team's carries inside the 10
29% of the team's end-zone targets
36% of the team's carries inside the 10
33% of the team's end-zone targets
Quarterbacks
career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)PROJECTED STARTER · Browns
Deshaun Watson
EPA per dropback −0.07
PROJECTED STARTER · Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
EPA per dropback −0.02
Injury report
players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this weekThe injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).
Browns: last 5 games
Steelers: last 5 games
| W16-10 | Covered | |
| W26-19 | Covered | |
| W34-22 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| W30-27 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCLEPIT
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyBrownsSteelers
BrownsSteelersLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | PIT −3.5 | 39.5 | CLE +150 · PIT −180 |
| BEAVER fair line | PIT −6.8 | 41.0 | CLE +231 · PIT −231 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CLE | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 19.0 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 21.9 / 19.7 |
| -1.9 | Avg margin | +2.1 |