BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Bears at Seahawks
BearsChicago5-2away
BEAVER projects21
Lumen Field
SeahawksSeattle4-3home
BEAVER projects25
BEAVERUnder 46.5, leanleanSEA −3, leanleanBEAVER gives SEA 61% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Bears
Seahawks

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 46.5, lean0.7 points off the line
  • SEA −3 lean, 0.6 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (CHI–SEA)21–25–
SpreadSEA −3.6SEA −3SEA −3
Total45.846.5Under 46.5
SEA win chance61%−170
CHI by 8+
19%
CHI by 1–7
20%
SEA by 1–7
24%
SEA by 8+
37%

Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Seahawks (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Chicago Bears
PassingYds
Caleb Williams QB228179–271
RushingYds
D'Andre Swift RB5136–68
Caleb Williams QB219–34
Roschon Johnson RB50–15
ReceivingRecYds
Colston Loveland TE4.23–64527–69
Luther Burden III WR4.02–64525–79
Rome Odunze WR3.12–44122–68
Kalif Raymond WR2.21–3197–35
D'Andre Swift RB2.61–4176–29
Seattle Seahawks
PassingYds
Sam Darnold QB263188–318▲
RushingYds
Emanuel Wilson RB4828–72
George Holani RB113–26
Velus Jones Jr. RB40–14
ReceivingRecYds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR6.14–87344–112
Cooper Kupp WR2.51–42811–46
AJ Barner TE2.91–52712–49
Rashid Shaheed WR1.61–3163–35
Tory Horton WR–80–25

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.069 #6Offense EPA / play−0.040 #23
−0.016 #12Defense EPA / play allowed−0.132 #1
+3.0% #6Offense success rate−0.9% #18
−0.3% #14Defense success rate allowed−5.6% #1
+0.102 #6Passing EPA / dropback+0.017 #15
−0.067 #6Pass defense EPA allowed−0.140 #2
+0.025 #12Rushing EPA / carry−0.113 #32
+0.056 #28Rush defense EPA allowed−0.123 #1
+0.052 #10Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.036 #22
+0.053 #29Early-down EPA allowed−0.084 #2
Scoring and special teams
+2.1 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #7
−0.5 #13Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.8 #2
+0.92 #2Special teams EPA / game+1.40 #1

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Chicago Bears
52%−1%
52% of the team's carries inside the 10
31%−6%
24% of the team's end-zone targets
Rome OdunzeWR
25%−5%
34% of the team's end-zone targets
22%−2%
16%−2%
13%+2%
Seattle Seahawks
42%+4%
55% of the team's end-zone targets
35%+3%
45% of the team's carries inside the 10
AJ BarnerTE
24%+6%
Cooper KuppWR
19%+5%
Tory HortonWR
17%+5%
15%+4%

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Bears
Caleb Williams
EPA per dropback +0.03
PROJECTED STARTER · Seahawks
Sam Darnold
EPA per dropback +0.02

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Bears: last 5 games

W30-24
vsPatriots
Covered
W31-23
atFalcons
Covered
L7-31
atPackers
Missed
W23-12
vsJets
Covered
W27-7
vsEagles
Covered

Seahawks: last 5 games

W20-3
vsChiefs
Covered
L14-17
atBroncos
Missed
L29-32
vs49ers
Missed
W30-23
vsChargers
Push
L31-33
atCommanders
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.06+0.09+0.13Entering week12345678Chicago Bears · 1: +0.02Chicago Bears · 2: +0.04Chicago Bears · 3: +0.03Chicago Bears · 4: +0.05Chicago Bears · 5: +0.05Chicago Bears · 6: +0.03Chicago Bears · 7: +0.07Chicago Bears · 8: +0.08Seattle Seahawks · 1: +0.08Seattle Seahawks · 2: +0.10Seattle Seahawks · 3: +0.12Seattle Seahawks · 4: +0.10Seattle Seahawks · 5: +0.11Seattle Seahawks · 6: +0.08Seattle Seahawks · 7: +0.07Seattle Seahawks · 8: +0.09
● Chicago Bears● Seattle Seahawks