BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 8 › Panthers at Packers
PanthersCarolina3-3away
BEAVER projects21
Lambeau Field
PackersGreen Bay4-3home
BEAVER projects27
BEAVERGB −3.5, leanleanOver 47.5, leanleanBEAVER gives GB 67% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Panthers
Packers

BEAVER’s card

Lean
GB −3.5, lean2.1 points off the line
  • Over 47.5 lean, 0.3 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (CAR–GB)21–27–
SpreadGB −5.6GB −3.5GB −3.5
Total47.847.5Over 47.5
GB win chance67%−185
CAR by 8+
15%
CAR by 1–7
18%
GB by 1–7
24%
GB by 8+
43%

Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Packers (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Carolina Panthers
PassingYds
Bryce Young QB229195–297
RushingYds
Chuba Hubbard RB5837–79▲
Bryce Young QB61–15
AJ Dillon RB61–18
ReceivingRecYds
Tetairoa McMillan WR4.83–66036–91
Jalen Coker WR4.02–64625–77
Darren Waller TE2.31–3207–38
John Metchie III WR1.91–3153–33
Tommy Tremble TE1.71–3133–29
Green Bay Packers
PassingYds
Jordan Love QB265194–319
RushingYds
Josh Jacobs RB5234–74▲
MarShawn Lloyd RB187–37
Kaleb Johnson RB61–18
ReceivingRecYds
Christian Watson WR4.13–65935–91
Matthew Golden WR4.33–65534–87
Tucker Kraft TE3.92–64323–69
Josh Jacobs RB2.11–3133–26
Savion Williams WR1.20–3100–25

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.034 #13Offense EPA / play+0.043 #11
+0.038 #27Defense EPA / play allowed−0.010 #15
+0.1% #15Offense success rate−0.2% #16
+0.7% #23Defense success rate allowed+1.0% #24
+0.027 #13Passing EPA / dropback+0.112 #5
+0.030 #22Pass defense EPA allowed−0.007 #16
+0.029 #11Rushing EPA / carry−0.081 #28
+0.042 #26Rush defense EPA allowed−0.017 #12
+0.080 #4Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.005 #18
+0.025 #23Early-down EPA allowed−0.039 #4
Scoring and special teams
+0.3 #14Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.1 #23
+2.2 #27Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.9 #7
−0.57 #26Special teams EPA / game+0.27 #12

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Carolina Panthers
39%+5%
72% of the team's carries inside the 10
28%+10%
30% of the team's end-zone targets
Jalen CokerWR
23%+8%
21% of the team's targets
19%+8%
22% of the team's end-zone targets
14%+3%
14%+5%
Green Bay Packers
Josh JacobsRB★ Best Bet
54%▲ +15%
70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
37%+10%
36% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual
Tucker KraftTE
37%+10%
Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Panthers' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
35%+5%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual
26%+6%
Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual
10%+9%
Panthers have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 2 more than usual

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
PROJECTED STARTER · Panthers
Bryce Young
EPA per dropback −0.06
PROJECTED STARTER · Packers
Jordan Love
EPA per dropback +0.11

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

The injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).

Panthers: last 5 games

L13-43
vsBuccaneers
Missed
W25-14
atEagles
Covered
W32-26
vsLions
Covered
L18-21
atBrowns
Missed
W34-3
atFalcons
Covered

Packers: last 5 games

L17-20
atLions
Covered
W23-13
vsCowboys
Covered
W31-7
vsBears
Covered
W17-14
atBuccaneers
Push
L14-35
vsFalcons
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.09−0.05−0.01+0.03+0.07Entering week12345678Carolina Panthers · 1: −0.06Carolina Panthers · 2: −0.08Carolina Panthers · 3: −0.02Carolina Panthers · 4: −0.04Carolina Panthers · 5: −0.01Carolina Panthers · 6: −0.01Carolina Panthers · 7: +0.01Carolina Panthers · 8: −0.00Green Bay Packers · 1: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 2: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 3: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 4: +0.01Green Bay Packers · 5: +0.02Green Bay Packers · 6: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 7: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 8: +0.05
● Carolina Panthers● Green Bay Packers