NFL scores › Week 8 › Ravens at Bills
BEAVEROver 53.5, leanleanBUF −3.5, leanleanBEAVER gives BUF 61% to win
Lines
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Ravens
Bills
RavensBillsBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 53.5, lean1.8 points off the line
- BUF −3.5 lean, 0.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BAL–BUF) | 26–30 | – | |
| Spread | BUF −3.8 | BUF −3.5 | BUF −3.5 |
| Total | 55.3 | 53.5 | Over 53.5 |
| BUF win chance | 61% | −192 |
BAL by 8+
19%
BAL by 1–7
20%
BUF by 1–7
24%
BUF by 8+
38%
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Bills (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Player projections
typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props| Baltimore Ravens | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Lamar Jackson QB | 234168–257 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Derrick Henry RB | 7853–104 | ||
| Lamar Jackson QB | 2311–38 | ||
| Justice Hill RB | 103–21 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Zay Flowers WR | 5.54–8 | 6942–110 | |
| Rashod Bateman WR | 2.11–3 | 2510–47 | |
| Ja'Kobi Lane WR | 2.31–4 | 2411–48 | |
| Mark Andrews TE | 2.81–4 | 249–44 | |
| Justice Hill RB | 1.51–3 | 112–24 | |
| Buffalo Bills | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Josh Allen QB | 253199–294▲ | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| James Cook RB | 8056–111 | ||
| Josh Allen QB | 3320–53 | ||
| Ty Johnson RB | 20–15 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Khalil Shakir WR | 4.12–6 | 4222–66 | |
| Dalton Kincaid TE | 3.32–5 | 3718–62 | |
| Keon Coleman WR | 2.81–4 | 3716–63 | |
| DJ Moore WR | 3.02–4 | 3513–59 | |
| Dawson Knox TE | 1.41–3 | 134–26 | |
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.Efficiency
+0.065 #8Offense EPA / play+0.119 #1
+0.010 #20Defense EPA / play allowed+0.040 #29
+1.8% #11Offense success rate+3.5% #3
+0.0% #18Defense success rate allowed+2.1% #26
+0.117 #4Passing EPA / dropback+0.154 #1
+0.017 #20Pass defense EPA allowed+0.020 #21
+0.016 #17Rushing EPA / carry+0.082 #4
−0.006 #14Rush defense EPA allowed+0.059 #29
+0.062 #6Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.084 #3
−0.019 #12Early-down EPA allowed+0.025 #22
Scoring and special teams
+0.7 #11Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.0 #1
+0.5 #18Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #26
+0.33 #10Special teams EPA / game+0.59 #6
Touchdown scorers
▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD boardBaltimore Ravens
83% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Bills have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
31% of the team's targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
28% of the team's end-zone targets
Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
67% of the team's end-zone targets · Bills have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Several smaller matchup factors add up: Bills' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Buffalo Bills
52% of the team's carries inside the 10
36% of the team's carries inside the 10
26% of the team's end-zone targets
21% of the team's targets
DJ MooreWR
25% of the team's end-zone targets
Quarterbacks
career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)PROJECTED STARTER · Ravens
Lamar Jackson
EPA per dropback +0.11Not the usual starter
PROJECTED STARTER · Bills
Josh Allen
EPA per dropback +0.13
Injury report
players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this weekThe injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).
Ravens: last 5 games
Bills: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBALBUF
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Lines
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RavensBillsLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BUF −3.5 | 53.5 | BAL +160 · BUF −192 |
| BEAVER fair line | BUF −3.8 | 55.3 | BAL +159 · BUF −159 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BAL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Away | 3-0 |
| 2-4 | Against the spread | 4-2 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 5-1 |
| 24.1 / 23.9 | Points for / against | 32.8 / 28.5 |
| +0.3 | Avg margin | +4.3 |