NFL scores › Week 8 › Cardinals at Cowboys
BEAVERUnder 54.5, leanleanARI +6.5, leanleanBEAVER gives DAL 68% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Cardinals
Cowboys
CardinalsCowboysBEAVER’s card
LeanUnder 54.5, lean1.1 points off the line
- ARI +6.5 lean, 0.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ARI–DAL) | 24–30 | – | |
| Spread | DAL −6.0 | DAL −6.5 | ARI +6.5 |
| Total | 53.4 | 54.5 | Under 54.5 |
| DAL win chance | 68% | −298 |
ARI by 8+
15%
ARI by 1–7
18%
DAL by 1–7
23%
DAL by 8+
44%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Cardinals (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
Player projections
typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes) · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props| Arizona Cardinals | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Jacoby Brissett QB | 262197–336 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Jeremiyah Love RB | 5028–73▲ | ||
| Bam Knight RB | 3112–45▲ | ||
| Tyler Allgeier RB | 2512–43 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Trey McBride TE | 6.24–8 | 6944–98 | |
| Michael Wilson WR | 4.93–7 | 5831–87 | |
| Kendrick Bourne WR | 2.31–4 | 218–39 | |
| Elijah Higgins TE | 1.61–3 | 122–27 | |
| Jalen Brooks WR | – | 102–29 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Dak Prescott QB | 278236–325▲ | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Javonte Williams RB | 5640–95▲ | ||
| Dak Prescott QB | 91–20 | ||
| Tyler Goodson RB | 71–22 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| CeeDee Lamb WR | 5.84–7 | 7037–100 | |
| George Pickens WR | 4.83–6 | 5931–88 | |
| Ryan Flournoy WR | 3.12–4 | 3517–51 | |
| Jake Ferguson TE | 2.11–3 | 154–29 | |
| Javonte Williams RB | 1.71–2 | 102–19 | |
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.Efficiency
−0.023 #20Offense EPA / play+0.074 #5
+0.028 #23Defense EPA / play allowed+0.131 #32
+0.5% #12Offense success rate+3.1% #5
−0.1% #15Defense success rate allowed+4.5% #31
−0.036 #21Passing EPA / dropback+0.081 #8
+0.087 #28Pass defense EPA allowed+0.180 #32
−0.007 #18Rushing EPA / carry+0.058 #7
−0.037 #6Rush defense EPA allowed+0.093 #32
+0.003 #16Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.059 #7
+0.026 #24Early-down EPA allowed+0.091 #32
Scoring and special teams
−1.2 #24Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.8 #4
+3.6 #32Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.4 #31
−0.71 #30Special teams EPA / game+0.05 #15
Touchdown scorers
▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD boardArizona Cardinals
28% of the team's targets · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
36% of the team's end-zone targets · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Cardinals at about 24 points, 3 more than usual
Dallas Cowboys
79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Cardinals have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
46% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual
22% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual
Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Cardinals have allowed 0.7 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.5) · Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual
Vegas has the Cowboys at about 30 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Cardinals' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately
Quarterbacks
career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)PROJECTED STARTER · Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett
EPA per dropback −0.05
PROJECTED STARTER · Cowboys
Dak Prescott
EPA per dropback +0.10
Injury report
players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this weekThe injury report for this game isn’t out yet (teams file them Wednesday through Friday).
Cardinals: last 5 games
Cowboys: last 5 games
| W38-21 | Covered | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L16-24 | Missed | |
| W34-30 | Covered | |
| L31-34 | Push |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekARIDAL
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyCardinalsCowboys
CardinalsCowboysLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | DAL −6.5 | 54.5 | ARI +240 · DAL −298 |
| BEAVER fair line | DAL −6 | 53.4 | ARI +208 · DAL −208 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ARI | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 0-3 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 20.3 / 29.7 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 25.7 |
| -9.4 | Avg margin | +1.3 |