San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

NFL scores › Week 7 › 49ers at Falcons

49ersSan Francisco6-1away

FinalMercedes-Benz Stadium

FalconsAtlanta3-4home

BEAVER SF −2.5, lostBEAVER Under 49.5, wonBEAVER had SF 69% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (SF–ATL)	27–21	–	20–29
Spread	SF −6.4	SF −2.5	ATL by 9	SF −2.5 ✗
Total	47.5	49.5	49	Under 49.5 ✓
ATL win chance	31%	+130	Won

SF by 8+

45%

SF by 1–7

23%

ATL by 1–7

18%

ATL by 8+

14%

Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for 49ers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts below Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

+0.120 #2Offense EPA / play−0.046 #23

−0.020 #13Defense EPA / play allowed−0.023 #10

+6.5% #1Offense success rate+0.0% #15

+0.3% #16Defense success rate allowed−1.1% #7

+0.159 #2Passing EPA / dropback−0.098 #28

−0.015 #14Pass defense EPA allowed−0.038 #7

+0.076 #5Rushing EPA / carry+0.014 #16

−0.031 #9Rush defense EPA allowed−0.040 #6

+0.094 #1Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.008 #17

−0.030 #9Early-down EPA allowed−0.025 #11

Scoring and special teams

+3.3 #3Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.4 #16

−2.0 #7Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.1 #22

+0.85 #2Special teams EPA / game−0.86 #31

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffreyRB★ Best BetTD

67%+7%

76% of the team's carries inside the 10

George KittleTENo TD

42%+8%

32% of the team's end-zone targets

Brandin CooksWRNo TD

21%+12%

A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Brock PurdyQBNo TD

18%+3%

Kaelon BlackRBTD

16%+8%

Jordan WatkinsWRNo TD

11%+4%

A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan RobinsonRBNo TD

58%+3%

69% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Drake LondonWRTD

34%+4%

32% of the team's end-zone targets

Kyle PittsTETD

23%+1%

21% of the team's end-zone targets

Jahan DotsonWRNo TD

16%+1%

32% of the team's end-zone targets

Zachariah BranchWRNo TD

8.3%−2%

Michael Penix Jr.QBNo TD

8.1%+2%

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

San Francisco 49ers
Passing		Yds
Brock Purdy QB		247288
Rushing		Yds
Christian McCaffrey RB		5839
Brock Purdy QB		205
Kaelon Black RB		1463
Receiving	Rec	Yds
George Kittle TE	4.58	5388
Christian McCaffrey RB	4.56	3561
Brandin Cooks WR	1.41	2113
Kyle Juszczyk RB	1.13	911
Jordan Watkins WR	1.03	656

Atlanta Falcons
Passing		Yds
Michael Penix Jr. QB		235213
Rushing		Yds
Bijan Robinson RB		7863
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Drake London WR	5.17	7066
Kyle Pitts TE	3.45	3822
Jahan Dotson WR	1.81	276
Bijan Robinson RB	3.25	2345
Olamide Zaccheaus WR	–	7DNP

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · 49ers

Brock Purdy

EPA per dropback +0.14

STARTED · Falcons

Michael Penix Jr.

EPA per dropback −0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

San Francisco 49ers
Mike Evans	WR · Ribs	Out
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR · Hamstring	Out
Nick Bosa	DE · Knee	Out
Luke Gifford	LB · Groin	Out
Garret Wallow	LB · Hamstring	Out
Marques Sigle	S · Ankle	Out
Christian Kirk	WR · Calf	Questionable
Upton Stout	CB · Shoulder	Questionable
Siran Neal	S · Knee	Questionable

Atlanta Falcons
Brian Robinson	RB · Hamstring	Out
Beaux Collins	WR · Hip	Out
Michael Jerrell	T · Biceps	Out
Cameron Williams	T · Ankle	Out
Divine Deablo	LB · Forearm	Out
Billy Bowman Jr.	CB · Hamstring	Out
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR · Shoulder	Questionable
Za'Darius Smith	DE · Neck	Questionable
Samson Ebukam	DE · Hamstring	Questionable
Gervon Dexter Sr.	DT · Hamstring	Questionable