Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

NFL scores › Week 7 › Steelers at Saints

SteelersPittsburgh5-2away

FinalStade de France, indoors

SaintsNew Orleans2-5neutral site

BEAVER NO +3, lostBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had PIT 57% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (PIT–NO)	25–22	–	16–10
Spread	PIT −2.3	PIT −3	PIT by 6	NO +3 ✗
Total	47.0	44.5	26	Over 44.5 ✗
NO win chance	43%	+136	Lost

PIT by 8+

33%

PIT by 1–7

24%

NO by 1–7

21%

NO by 8+

22%

Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Saints (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.028 #20Offense EPA / play−0.042 #22

+0.004 #16Defense EPA / play allowed+0.018 #21

−1.3% #21Offense success rate−1.0% #19

+0.3% #17Defense success rate allowed+2.5% #29

−0.090 #26Passing EPA / dropback−0.038 #19

−0.019 #12Pass defense EPA allowed+0.018 #21

+0.090 #3Rushing EPA / carry−0.052 #21

+0.022 #23Rush defense EPA allowed+0.018 #21

−0.007 #16Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.063 #27

−0.011 #13Early-down EPA allowed+0.030 #25

Scoring and special teams

−0.4 #17Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.6 #19

−0.9 #13Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #28

+0.67 #6Special teams EPA / game−1.04 #32

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen WarrenRBNo TD

34%+6%

47% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Saints have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

DK MetcalfWRNo TD

32%+6%

25% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Steelers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Germie BernardWRNo TD

31%+1%

Vegas has the Steelers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Pat FreiermuthTENo TD

24%+11%

Vegas has the Steelers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Saints' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Darnell WashingtonTETD

16%+1%

30% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Steelers at about 24 points, 3 more than usual

Rico DowdleRBQNo TD

14%+5%

Questionable (limited in practice): players like him play about 64% of the time; 22% if he plays · Saints have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

New Orleans Saints

Chris OlaveWRNo TD

28%−1%

25% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Devaughn VeleWRTD

26%−3%

28% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Kendre MillerRBNo TD

24%−4%

45% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Tyler ShoughQBNo TD

19%−1%

Alvin KamaraRBNo TD

18%−1%

Tough matchup: Steelers have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Juwan JohnsonTENo TD

17%−1%

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Pittsburgh Steelers
Passing		Yds
Aaron Rodgers QB		223212
Rushing		Yds
Jaylen Warren RB		64101▲
Rico Dowdle RB		2541
Lew Nichols III RB		6DNP
Receiving	Rec	Yds
DK Metcalf WR	4.92	5456
Germie Bernard WR	4.43	4527
Pat Freiermuth TE	3.02	2820
Jaylen Warren RB	3.03	2436
Darnell Washington TE	2.31	224

New Orleans Saints
Passing		Yds
Tyler Shough QB		228278
Rushing		Yds
Kendre Miller RB		266
Alvin Kamara RB		195
Tyler Shough QB		157
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Chris Olave WR	5.56	6556
Devaughn Vele WR	3.55	4154
Juwan Johnson TE	3.21	337
Bryce Lance WR	1.12	1312
Alvin Kamara RB	1.97	1157