New York Giants at Houston Texans

NFL scores › Week 7 › Giants at Texans

GiantsNew York4-2-1away

FinalReliant Stadium

TexansHouston2-5home

BEAVER NYG +10.5, wonBEAVER Under 42.5, lostBEAVER had HOU 76% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (NYG–HOU)	17–26	–	27–21
Spread	HOU −9.1	HOU −10.5	NYG by 6	NYG +10.5 ✓
Total	42.2	42.5	48	Under 42.5 ✗
HOU win chance	76%	−520	Lost

NYG by 8+

10%

NYG by 1–7

15%

HOU by 1–7

22%

HOU by 8+

53%

Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Giants (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.061 #27Offense EPA / play−0.011 #16

+0.021 #23Defense EPA / play allowed−0.039 #6

−2.9% #27Offense success rate−1.2% #20

+0.5% #19Defense success rate allowed−3.3% #4

−0.050 #21Passing EPA / dropback+0.030 #14

−0.015 #13Pass defense EPA allowed−0.019 #11

−0.073 #29Rushing EPA / carry−0.097 #30

+0.091 #32Rush defense EPA allowed−0.069 #2

−0.076 #29Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.020 #12

+0.041 #27Early-down EPA allowed−0.039 #5

Scoring and special teams

−1.6 #26Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.0 #15

+1.1 #21Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.9 #8

+0.23 #13Special teams EPA / game−0.49 #24

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

New York Giants

Malik NabersWRNo TD

27%−10%

46% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual

Isaiah LikelyTENo TD

25%−7%

27% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual

Cam SkatteboRBTD

22%−7%

45% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual

Devin SingletaryRBTD

18%−11%

Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBTD

17%−8%

Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Malachi FieldsWRNo TD

17%−12%

Vegas has the Giants at about 16 points, 4 fewer than usual

Houston Texans

Woody MarksRB★ Best BetNo TD

53%+15%

52% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual

Nico CollinsWRNo TD

35%▲ +21%

31% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual

Kayshon BoutteWRNo TD

18%▲ +21%

Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Dalton SchultzTENo TD

18%+18%

Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Jaylin NoelWRNo TD

17%+21%

Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Giants' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Marvin Harrison Jr.WRTD

16%+12%

23% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Texans at about 26 points, 5 more than usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

New York Giants
Passing		Yds
J.J. McCarthy QB		187252
Rushing		Yds
Cam Skattebo RB		22124
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB		1815
Devin Singletary RB		1641
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Malik Nabers WR	5.97	68111
Isaiah Likely TE	4.62	4712
Malachi Fields WR	2.14	2583
Darnell Mooney WR	1.21	134
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	1.11	72

Houston Texans
Passing		Yds
C.J. Stroud QB		274153▲
Rushing		Yds
Woody Marks RB		5366▲
C.J. Stroud QB		104
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Nico Collins WR	4.42	606
Dalton Schultz TE	3.15	3245
Xavier Hutchinson WR	2.23	2817
Jaylin Noel WR	2.12	26-3
Kayshon Boutte WR	1.81	2025

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Giants

J.J. McCarthy

EPA per dropback −0.13Not the usual starter

STARTED · Texans

C.J. Stroud

EPA per dropback +0.02

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

New York Giants
Tremaine Edmunds	LB · Shoulder	Out
Greg Newsome II	CB · Concussion	Out
Jevon Holland	S · Concussion	Out
Theo Johnson	TE · Neck	Doubtful
Jermaine Eluemunor	T · Calf	Questionable
Marcus Mbow	T · Knee	Questionable
Paulson Adebo	CB · Knee	Questionable
Tyler Nubin	S · Neck	Questionable