New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

NFL scores › Week 7 › Patriots at Bears

PatriotsNew England4-3away

FinalSoldier Field

BearsChicago5-2home

BEAVER NE +3, lostBEAVER Under 50.5, lostBEAVER had NE 50% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (NE–CHI)	24–24	–	24–30
Spread	Even	CHI −3	CHI by 6	NE +3 ✗
Total	47.1	50.5	54	Under 50.5 ✗
CHI win chance	50%	−155	Won

NE by 8+

27%

NE by 1–7

23%

CHI by 1–7

23%

CHI by 8+

27%

Spread: 3.0 pts better than Vegas for Patriots (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

+0.057 #9Offense EPA / play+0.060 #8

−0.023 #12Defense EPA / play allowed−0.011 #14

+2.5% #8Offense success rate+3.2% #5

+0.1% #15Defense success rate allowed+0.0% #14

+0.122 #3Passing EPA / dropback+0.087 #7

−0.030 #9Pass defense EPA allowed−0.070 #6

−0.028 #19Rushing EPA / carry+0.029 #13

+0.000 #15Rush defense EPA allowed+0.076 #30

+0.022 #11Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.043 #10

−0.003 #16Early-down EPA allowed+0.045 #29

Scoring and special teams

+0.3 #14Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #9

−3.3 #2Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.7 #14

−0.20 #20Special teams EPA / game+0.74 #3

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

New England Patriots

A.J. BrownWRNo TD

39%+4%

28% of the team's targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Rhamondre StevensonRBTD

35%+1%

43% of the team's carries inside the 10

DeMario DouglasWRNo TD

27%+5%

23% of the team's end-zone targets · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Hunter HenryTENo TD

23%+5%

TreVeyon HendersonRBNo TD

19%+3%

Drake MayeQBTD

19%+4%

Chicago Bears

D'Andre SwiftRB★ Best BetTD

56%+8%

53% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Patriots have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)

Colston LovelandTETD

29%+7%

26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual

Rome OdunzeWRNo TD

26%+10%

28% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual

Roschon JohnsonRBNo TD

26%+9%

Tough matchup: Patriots have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual

Luther Burden IIIWRTD

21%▲ +13%

Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual · Several smaller matchup factors add up: Patriots' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Caleb WilliamsQBNo TD

20%+1%

Vegas has the Bears at about 27 points, 4 more than usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

New England Patriots
Passing		Yds
Drake Maye QB		230321
Rushing		Yds
Rhamondre Stevenson RB		4322
Drake Maye QB		2626
TreVeyon Henderson RB		229
Receiving	Rec	Yds
A.J. Brown WR	4.53	5548
DeMario Douglas WR	3.13	3523
Hunter Henry TE	3.17	3371
Efton Chism III WR	1.51	2116
Kyle Williams WR	1.10	160

Chicago Bears
Passing		Yds
Caleb Williams QB		253308
Rushing		Yds
D'Andre Swift RB		5378
Caleb Williams QB		2218
Roschon Johnson RB		1413
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Colston Loveland TE	3.77	4469
Luther Burden III WR	4.14	43130
Rome Odunze WR	3.14	4269
Kalif Raymond WR	2.40	180
D'Andre Swift RB	2.24	1512

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Patriots

Drake Maye

EPA per dropback +0.07

STARTED · Bears

Caleb Williams

EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

New England Patriots
Alijah Vera-Tucker	G · Hamstring	Out
Ben Brown	C · Knee	Out
Carlton Davis III	CB · Neck	Out
Karon Prunty	CB · Hamstring	Out
Channing Canada	CB · Hamstring	Out
Morgan Moses	T · Foot	Questionable
Christian Elliss	LB · Chest	Questionable
Christian Gonzalez	CB · Illness	Questionable
Kevin Byard	S · Chest	Questionable
Craig Woodson	S · Shoulder	Questionable