NFL scores › Week 7 › Dolphins at Jets
BEAVER MIA +4.5, wonBEAVER Over 39.5, wonBEAVER had NYJ 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MIA–NYJ) | 19–22 | – | 28–25 | |
| Spread | NYJ −3.1 | NYJ −4.5 | MIA by 3 | MIA +4.5 ✓ |
| Total | 41.8 | 39.5 | 53 | Over 39.5 ✓ |
| NYJ win chance | 59% | −218 | Lost |
MIA by 8+
20%
MIA by 1–7
21%
NYJ by 1–7
24%
NYJ by 8+
35%
Spread: 1.4 pts better than Vegas for Dolphins (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.Efficiency
−0.027 #19Offense EPA / play−0.067 #28
+0.062 #30Defense EPA / play allowed+0.018 #20
−1.7% #22Offense success rate−0.7% #17
+4.3% #31Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #21
−0.064 #24Passing EPA / dropback−0.074 #25
+0.100 #30Pass defense EPA allowed+0.058 #28
+0.012 #17Rushing EPA / carry−0.063 #26
+0.029 #25Rush defense EPA allowed−0.035 #8
−0.038 #23Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.036 #22
+0.043 #28Early-down EPA allowed+0.015 #21
Scoring and special teams
−3.9 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.1 #28
+1.5 #24Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.6 #18
−0.13 #19Special teams EPA / game+0.22 #14
Touchdown scorers
▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Miami Dolphins
44% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Jets have allowed 1.4 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual
21% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual
Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual
Vegas has the Dolphins at about 18 points, 2 fewer than usual
New York Jets
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Dolphins have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
50% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Vegas has the Jets at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Player projections
typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props| Miami Dolphins | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Malik Willis QB | 182208 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Ollie Gordon II RB | 43103▲ | ||
| Malik Willis QB | 2937 | ||
| Jaylen Wright RB | 178 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Malik Washington WR | 3.63 | 3527 | |
| Greg Dulcich TE | 2.55 | 2286 | |
| Chris Bell WR | 1.43 | 1525 | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. WR | 1.30 | 140 | |
| Ollie Gordon II RB | 1.01 | 60 | |
| New York Jets | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Yds | ||
| Geno Smith QB | 210287 | ||
| Rushing | Yds | ||
| Braelon Allen RB | 44104▲ | ||
| Geno Smith QB | 60 | ||
| Isaiah Davis RB | 65 | ||
| Receiving | Rec | Yds | |
| Garrett Wilson WR | 4.92 | 5726 | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. WR | 3.35 | 44115 | |
| Mason Taylor TE | 2.45 | 1962 | |
| Kenyon Sadiq TE | 1.61 | 166 | |
| Braelon Allen RB | 1.56 | 1130 | |
Quarterbacks
career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)STARTED · Dolphins
Malik Willis
EPA per dropback −0.09
STARTED · Jets
Geno Smith
EPA per dropback −0.03
Injury report
players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week| Miami Dolphins | ||
|---|---|---|
| Reese Taylor | CB · Quadricep | Out |
| Rob Beal Jr. | DE · Hamstring | Doubtful |
| Willie Gay Jr. | LB · Illness | Questionable |
| Kyle Louis | S · Knee | Questionable |
| New York Jets | ||
|---|---|---|
| Max Mitchell | T · Concussion | Out |
| Joseph Ossai | DE · Ankle | Out |
| Francisco Mauigoa | LB · Quadricep | Out |
| Kene Nwangwu | RB · Knee | Questionable |
| Breece Hall | RB · Quadricep | Questionable |
| Dylan Parham | G · Knee | Questionable |
Dolphins: last 5 games
Jets: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMIANYJ
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No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | NYJ −4.5 | 39.5 | MIA +180 · NYJ −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | NYJ −3.1 | 41.8 | MIA +146 · NYJ −146 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MIA | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 0-2 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-2 |
| 3-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 16.3 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 19.6 / 21.4 |
| -9.8 | Avg margin | -1.9 |