BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 7 › Rams at Raiders
RamsLos Angeles3-4away
35
FinalAllegiant Stadium, indoors
RaidersLas Vegas3-4home
21
BEAVER LA −3.5, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had LA 63% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERMarketResultCall
Score (LA–LV)27–23–35–21
SpreadLA −4.5LA −3.5LA by 14LA −3.5 ✓
Total50.348.556Over 48.5 ✓
LV win chance37%+150Lost
LA by 8+
39%
LA by 1–7
24%
LV by 1–7
19%
LV by 8+
17%

Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Rams (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.067 #6Offense EPA / play−0.038 #21
−0.024 #9Defense EPA / play allowed+0.022 #24
+3.5% #3Offense success rate−1.8% #23
−0.0% #13Defense success rate allowed+1.4% #26
+0.059 #10Passing EPA / dropback+0.002 #15
−0.007 #17Pass defense EPA allowed+0.048 #25
+0.060 #7Rushing EPA / carry−0.100 #31
−0.027 #10Rush defense EPA allowed+0.006 #16
+0.094 #2Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.056 #25
+0.005 #19Early-down EPA allowed+0.033 #26
Scoring and special teams
+1.6 #10Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.4 #18
−1.0 #12Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #26
−0.82 #29Special teams EPA / game−0.68 #28

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren WilliamsRBTD
63%+2%
73% of the team's carries inside the 10
Tyler HigbeeTENo TD
26%+7%
Colby ParkinsonTENo TD
24%+8%
Blake CorumRBTD
23%+3%
Puka NacuaWRQTD
21%+1%
Questionable (didn't practice): players like him play about 41% of the time; 51% if he plays · 31% of the team's end-zone targets
Konata MumpfieldWRNo TD
17%+1%
A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Las Vegas Raiders
Ashton JeantyRBTD
48%+9%
75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Tough matchup: Rams have allowed 0.6 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Brock BowersTENo TD
38%▲ +20%
45% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Tre TuckerWRTD
22%+9%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Michael MayerTENo TD
18%+4%
Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Jalen NailorWRNo TD
13%+8%
Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual
Cody WhiteWRNo TD
12%+4%
Vegas has the Raiders at about 22 points, 3 more than usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Los Angeles Rams
PassingYds
Matthew Stafford QB272195
RushingYds
Kyren Williams RB6299
Blake Corum RB2593
ReceivingRecYds
Puka Nacua WR6.487868
Tyler Higbee TE3.323214
Kyren Williams RB3.422422
Colby Parkinson TE2.151948
Konata Mumpfield WR1.311815
Las Vegas Raiders
PassingYds
Kirk Cousins QB260295
RushingYds
Ashton Jeanty RB5215
Mike Washington Jr. RB1827
Kirk Cousins QB06
ReceivingRecYds
Brock Bowers TE5.266673
Tre Tucker WR3.4543103
Michael Mayer TE3.333632
Ashton Jeanty RB3.282661
Cody White WR1.21154

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
STARTED · Rams
Matthew Stafford
EPA per dropback +0.10
STARTED · Raiders
Kirk Cousins
EPA per dropback +0.04

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week
Los Angeles Rams
Nate LandmanLB · ConcussionOut
Puka NacuaWR · CalfQuestionable
Trent McDuffieCB · GroinQuestionable
Las Vegas Raiders
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · HamstringOut
Carter RunyonTE · FootOut
Mike Washington Jr.RB · FootQuestionable
Quay WalkerLB · ChestQuestionable

Rams: last 5 games

L16-18
vsCardinals
Missed
L34-37
vsBills
Missed
W24-20
atEagles
Covered
L26-30
atBroncos
Missed
W28-6
vsGiants
Covered

Raiders: last 5 games

L30-33
vsBills
Covered
L17-45
atPatriots
Missed
L27-30
vsChiefs
Covered
W35-27
atSaints
Covered
W26-14
atChargers
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.12−0.05+0.01+0.08+0.15Entering week1234567Los Angeles Rams · 1: +0.09Los Angeles Rams · 2: +0.06Los Angeles Rams · 3: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 4: +0.11Los Angeles Rams · 5: +0.13Los Angeles Rams · 6: +0.12Los Angeles Rams · 7: +0.09Las Vegas Raiders · 1: −0.10Las Vegas Raiders · 2: −0.07Las Vegas Raiders · 3: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 4: −0.03Las Vegas Raiders · 5: −0.04Las Vegas Raiders · 6: −0.06Las Vegas Raiders · 7: −0.06
● Los Angeles Rams● Las Vegas Raiders