BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 7 › Chiefs at Seahawks
ChiefsKansas City5-1away
3
FinalLumen Field
SeahawksSeattle4-3home
20
BEAVER KC +3, lostBEAVER Over 42.5, lostBEAVER had SEA 59% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERMarketResultCall
Score (KC–SEA)21–24–3–20
SpreadSEA −2.9SEA −3SEA by 17KC +3 ✗
Total45.442.523Over 42.5 ✗
SEA win chance59%−162Won
KC by 8+
20%
KC by 1–7
21%
SEA by 1–7
24%
SEA by 8+
35%

Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Chiefs (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (49% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.087 #3Offense EPA / play−0.051 #24
−0.009 #15Defense EPA / play allowed−0.125 #1
+3.4% #4Offense success rate−1.0% #18
−0.8% #10Defense success rate allowed−5.0% #2
+0.059 #11Passing EPA / dropback−0.006 #17
+0.005 #19Pass defense EPA allowed−0.130 #2
+0.127 #1Rushing EPA / carry−0.115 #32
−0.022 #11Rush defense EPA allowed−0.122 #1
+0.067 #7Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.026 #21
−0.014 #12Early-down EPA allowed−0.073 #2
Scoring and special teams
+1.2 #12Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.4 #5
−3.1 #3Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.6 #4
+0.17 #15Special teams EPA / game+1.45 #1

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Kansas City Chiefs
Kenneth Walker IIIRBNo TD
55%−3%
79% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual
Xavier WorthyWRNo TD
25%−14%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Travis KelceTENo TD
20%−11%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual
Jalen RoyalsWRNo TD
14%−6%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Andrew ArmstrongWRNo TD
14%−8%
33% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual
Patrick MahomesQBNo TD
14%−6%
Vegas has the Chiefs at about 20 points, 4 fewer than usual
Seattle Seahawks
41%−6%
56% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.4 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Emanuel WilsonRBTD
24%−7%
47% of the team's carries inside the 10
AJ BarnerTENo TD
23%−6%
21% of the team's end-zone targets
Cooper KuppWRNo TD
22%−12%
Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.4 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
Tory HortonWRNo TD
16%−5%
Tough matchup: Chiefs have allowed 0.4 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)
George HolaniRBNo TD
14%−7%

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Kansas City Chiefs
PassingYds
Patrick Mahomes QB213165
RushingYds
Kenneth Walker III RB8036
Patrick Mahomes QB1414
Emmett Johnson RB70
ReceivingRecYds
Xavier Worthy WR3.834011
Travis Kelce TE3.643744
Kenneth Walker III RB2.741521
Jalen Royals WR1.30150
Andrew Armstrong WR1.11153
Seattle Seahawks
PassingYds
Sam Darnold QB240257
RushingYds
Emanuel Wilson RB28100
George Holani RB1111
Sam Darnold QB317
ReceivingRecYds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR6.2972150
Cooper Kupp WR3.023120
AJ Barner TE2.942542
Rashid Shaheed WR1.92201
Tory Horton WR1.0090

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
STARTED · Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
EPA per dropback +0.10
STARTED · Seahawks
Sam Darnold
EPA per dropback +0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week
Kansas City Chiefs
Brashard SmithRB · HamstringOut
Rashee RiceWR · HamstringOut
Jaylon MooreT · ConcussionOut
Cooper McDonaldLB · KneeQuestionable
L'Jarius SneedCB · KneeQuestionable
Seattle Seahawks
Zach CharbonnetRB · KneeOut
Chazz SurrattLB · CalfOut
Drake ThomasLB · AnkleOut
Drew LockQB · ElbowQuestionable
DeMarcus LawrenceLB · KneeQuestionable
Uchenna NwosuLB · HipQuestionable
Connor O'TooleLB · HamstringQuestionable
Nick EmmanworiS · HipQuestionable

Chiefs: last 5 games

W22-6
vsChargers
Covered
W30-27
atRaiders
Missed
W24-10
atDolphins
Covered
W33-30
vsColts
Missed
W31-10
vsBroncos
Covered

Seahawks: last 5 games

L14-17
atBroncos
Missed
L29-32
vs49ers
Missed
W30-23
vsChargers
Push
L31-33
atCommanders
Missed
W31-7
atCardinals
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.02+0.06+0.09+0.13Entering week1234567Kansas City Chiefs · 1: +0.02Kansas City Chiefs · 2: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 3: +0.06Kansas City Chiefs · 4: +0.07Kansas City Chiefs · 5: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 6: +0.08Kansas City Chiefs · 7: +0.10Seattle Seahawks · 1: +0.08Seattle Seahawks · 2: +0.10Seattle Seahawks · 3: +0.12Seattle Seahawks · 4: +0.10Seattle Seahawks · 5: +0.11Seattle Seahawks · 6: +0.08Seattle Seahawks · 7: +0.07
● Kansas City Chiefs● Seattle Seahawks