Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

NFL scores › Week 7 › Colts at Vikings

ColtsIndianapolis2-5away

FinalU.S. Bank Stadium, indoors

VikingsMinnesota6-0home

BEAVER MIN −6.5, lostBEAVER Over 41.5, lostBEAVER had MIN 71% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (IND–MIN)	20–27	–	10–16
Spread	MIN −7.3	MIN −6.5	MIN by 6	MIN −6.5 ✗
Total	46.3	41.5	26	Over 41.5 ✗
MIN win chance	71%	−325	Won

IND by 8+

12%

IND by 1–7

17%

MIN by 1–7

23%

MIN by 8+

48%

Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Vikings (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

+0.004 #14Offense EPA / play−0.079 #29

+0.042 #27Defense EPA / play allowed−0.107 #2

−0.1% #16Offense success rate−3.8% #31

+0.8% #24Defense success rate allowed−5.4% #1

−0.055 #22Passing EPA / dropback−0.093 #27

+0.051 #27Pass defense EPA allowed−0.146 #1

+0.104 #2Rushing EPA / carry−0.055 #23

+0.044 #27Rush defense EPA allowed−0.068 #3

−0.023 #20Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.061 #26

+0.056 #30Early-down EPA allowed−0.078 #1

Scoring and special teams

+1.7 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.4 #25

+2.6 #29Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−4.8 #1

+0.23 #12Special teams EPA / game−0.32 #21

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan TaylorRBTD

47%−11%

70% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual

Keenan AllenWRNo TD

23%−15%

23% of the team's targets · Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)

Josh DownsWRNo TD

22%−10%

Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual

Daniel JonesQBNo TD

15%−3%

Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual

Laquon TreadwellWRNo TD

11%−6%

Tough matchup: Vikings have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual

Seth McGowanRBNo TD

10%−8%

Vegas has the Colts at about 18 points, 5 fewer than usual

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron JonesRBNo TD

41%+8%

62% of the team's carries inside the 10

Justin JeffersonWRNo TD

36%+8%

49% of the team's end-zone targets

Jordan AddisonWRNo TD

33%+6%

27% of the team's end-zone targets

Jauan JenningsWRNo TD

19%+9%

30% of the team's end-zone targets

Kyler MurrayQBNo TD

19%+5%

Gavin BartholomewTENo TD

13%+10%

Several smaller matchup factors add up: Colts' defensive ratings and red-zone chances allowed lately

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Indianapolis Colts
Passing		Yds
Daniel Jones QB		190108
Rushing		Yds
Jonathan Taylor RB		7195
Seth McGowan RB		1146
Daniel Jones QB		813
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Keenan Allen WR	4.03	3931
Josh Downs WR	3.62	3818
Laquon Treadwell WR	1.52	1919
Jonathan Taylor RB	2.62	1715
Will Mallory TE	1.00	100

Minnesota Vikings
Passing		Yds
Kyler Murray QB		214150
Rushing		Yds
Aaron Jones RB		6226
Kyler Murray QB		2239
Demond Claiborne RB		3DNP
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Justin Jefferson WR	4.54	5644
Jordan Addison WR	3.12	4020
Jauan Jennings WR	1.62	1934
T.J. Hockenson TE	2.74	1935
Aaron Jones RB	2.71	170

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Colts

Daniel Jones

EPA per dropback −0.04

STARTED · Vikings

Kyler Murray

EPA per dropback −0.01

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Gould	WR · Concussion	Out
Tyler Warren	TE · Groin	Out
CJ Allen	LB · Ankle	Out
Sauce Gardner	CB · Calf	Out
Bryce Boettcher	LB · Groin	Questionable
Justin Walley	CB · Knee	Questionable