BEAVER
NFL scores › Week 7 › Packers at Lions
PackersGreen Bay4-3away
17
FinalFord Field, indoors
LionsDetroit4-2home
20
BEAVER DET −3.5, lostBEAVER Under 55.5, wonBEAVER had DET 65% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERMarketResultCall
Score (GB–DET)24–29–17–20
SpreadDET −5.1DET −3.5DET by 3DET −3.5 ✗
Total53.755.537Under 55.5 ✓
DET win chance65%−192Won
GB by 8+
16%
GB by 1–7
19%
DET by 1–7
24%
DET by 8+
41%

Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Lions (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.
Efficiency
+0.051 #11Offense EPA / play+0.061 #7
+0.007 #18Defense EPA / play allowed+0.031 #25
+1.0% #12Offense success rate+2.5% #9
+0.8% #23Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #22
+0.121 #4Passing EPA / dropback+0.069 #8
−0.009 #15Pass defense EPA allowed+0.043 #24
−0.066 #27Rushing EPA / carry+0.062 #6
+0.017 #19Rush defense EPA allowed+0.017 #20
+0.017 #13Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.059 #8
−0.038 #6Early-down EPA allowed+0.004 #17
Scoring and special teams
−0.7 #20Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.0 #2
−1.4 #11Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #27
+0.32 #10Special teams EPA / game+0.74 #4

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board
Green Bay Packers
Christian WatsonWRNo TD
40%+5%
43% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Matthew GoldenWRNo TD
35%+8%
29% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Tucker KraftTETD
33%▲ +15%
Lions have allowed 0.9 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4) · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
MarShawn LloydRBNo TD
31%+9%
37% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Pierre StrongRBNo TD
16%+6%
Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around
Jordan LoveQBNo TD
8.8%Usual
Vegas has the Packers at about 26 points, 3 more than usual
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr GibbsRBNo TD
68%+1%
75% of the team's carries inside the 10 · Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9)
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRNo TD
48%−1%
32% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual
Sam LaPortaTENo TD
40%−1%
26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual
Jameson WilliamsWRTD ×2
35%+1%
Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual
Isaac TeSlaaWRNo TD
19%+2%
26% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual
Sione VakiRBNo TD
10%+2%
Packers have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Lions at about 30 points, 2 more than usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props
Green Bay Packers
PassingYds
Jordan Love QB288274▲
RushingYds
MarShawn Lloyd RB1820
Pierre Strong RB10DNP
Kaleb Johnson RB6DNP
ReceivingRecYds
Christian Watson WR4.256457
Matthew Golden WR4.166039
Tucker Kraft TE3.744348▲
Pierre Strong RB1.5DNP11DNP
MarShawn Lloyd RB1.02810
Detroit Lions
PassingYds
Jared Goff QB290303
RushingYds
Jahmyr Gibbs RB74116
Sione Vaki RB55
ReceivingRecYds
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR6.2977153
Sam LaPorta TE4.615518
Jameson Williams WR3.855491
Jahmyr Gibbs RB4.253727
Isaac TeSlaa WR1.211810

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)
STARTED · Packers
Jordan Love
EPA per dropback +0.11
STARTED · Lions
Jared Goff
EPA per dropback +0.14

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week
Green Bay Packers
Zaire FranklinLB · ShinOut
Bo MeltonWR · BackQuestionable
Aaron BanksG · KneeQuestionable
Jordon RileyDT · AchillesQuestionable
Benjamin St-JusteCB · HamstringQuestionable
Detroit Lions
Cade MaysC · WristQuestionable
Brian BranchS · AchillesQuestionable

Packers: last 5 games

W23-13
vsCowboys
Covered
W31-7
vsBears
Covered
W17-14
atBuccaneers
Push
L14-35
vsFalcons
Missed
W20-17
atJets
Missed

Lions: last 5 games

W45-21
atCardinals
Covered
L26-32
atPanthers
Missed
W31-24
vsJets
Push
L31-41
atBills
Missed
W31-30
vsSaints
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.00+0.01+0.03+0.05+0.06Entering week1234567Green Bay Packers · 1: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 2: +0.06Green Bay Packers · 3: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 4: +0.01Green Bay Packers · 5: +0.02Green Bay Packers · 6: +0.04Green Bay Packers · 7: +0.04Detroit Lions · 1: +0.05Detroit Lions · 2: +0.05Detroit Lions · 3: +0.02Detroit Lions · 4: +0.03Detroit Lions · 5: +0.00Detroit Lions · 6: +0.02Detroit Lions · 7: +0.03
● Green Bay Packers● Detroit Lions