Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

NFL scores › Week 7 › Broncos at Cardinals

BroncosDenver5-2away

FinalState Farm Stadium

CardinalsArizona2-5home

BEAVER ARI +4.5, lostBEAVER Over 43.5, wonBEAVER had DEN 58% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (DEN–ARI)	23–21	–	30–16
Spread	DEN −2.7	DEN −4.5	DEN by 14	ARI +4.5 ✗
Total	44.2	43.5	46	Over 43.5 ✓
ARI win chance	42%	+190	Lost

DEN by 8+

34%

DEN by 1–7

24%

ARI by 1–7

21%

ARI by 8+

21%

Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Cardinals (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

−0.007 #15Offense EPA / play−0.016 #18

−0.052 #3Defense EPA / play allowed+0.020 #22

−2.2% #26Offense success rate+0.8% #13

−3.8% #3Defense success rate allowed+0.5% #18

−0.042 #20Passing EPA / dropback−0.028 #18

−0.099 #3Pass defense EPA allowed+0.077 #29

+0.048 #8Rushing EPA / carry−0.002 #18

+0.021 #22Rush defense EPA allowed−0.036 #7

−0.009 #18Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.010 #15

−0.028 #10Early-down EPA allowed+0.010 #20

Scoring and special teams

−0.9 #22Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.1 #24

−2.6 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.3 #31

−0.05 #18Special teams EPA / game−0.61 #25

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Denver Broncos

J.K. DobbinsRBTD

39%+6%

54% of the team's carries inside the 10

RJ HarveyRBTD

31%+4%

Courtland SuttonWRNo TD

25%+1%

49% of the team's end-zone targets

Jaylen WaddleWRNo TD

25%+5%

23% of the team's targets

Bo NixQBTD

19%+2%

Evan EngramTENo TD

14%+1%

Cardinals have allowed 0.8 TDs a game to tight ends lately (average 0.4)

Arizona Cardinals

Trey McBrideTETD

34%−10%

20% of the team's end-zone targets

Michael WilsonWRNo TD

29%−19%

35% of the team's end-zone targets · Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9)

Tyler AllgeierRBNo TD

26%−9%

36% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Bam KnightRBNo TD

25%−10%

38% of the team's carries inside the 10 · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Kendrick BourneWRNo TD

13%−6%

Tough matchup: Broncos have allowed 0.5 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Jacoby BrissettQBNo TD

11%+3%

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Denver Broncos
Passing		Yds
Bo Nix QB		226222
Rushing		Yds
J.K. Dobbins RB		5623▲
RJ Harvey RB		206
Bo Nix QB		1173
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Jaylen Waddle WR	3.64	3748
Courtland Sutton WR	2.73	3245
RJ Harvey RB	2.92	2154
Evan Engram TE	2.01	172
Troy Franklin WR	1.10	120

Arizona Cardinals
Passing		Yds
Jacoby Brissett QB		213272
Rushing		Yds
Tyler Allgeier RB		3119
Bam Knight RB		2648
Jacoby Brissett QB		716
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Trey McBride TE	5.910	61111
Michael Wilson WR	4.94	5655
Kendrick Bourne WR	2.53	239
Elijah Higgins TE	1.43	1117
Jalen Brooks WR	1.01	1035

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Broncos

Bo Nix

EPA per dropback +0.00

STARTED · Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett

EPA per dropback −0.04

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

Denver Broncos
Tyler Badie	RB · Thumb	Out
Jonah Elliss	LB · Ankle	Out
Talanoa Hufanga	S · Ankle	Out
Jonah Coleman	RB · Ankle	Questionable
Pat Surtain II	CB · Ankle	Questionable

Arizona Cardinals
Jeremiyah Love	RB · Ankle	Out
Jon Gaines II	G · Knee	Out
Walter Nolen	DT · Ankle	Out
Andrew Wingard	S · Knee	Out
Carson Beck	QB · Back	Questionable
Darius Robinson	DT · Back	Questionable
Max Melton	CB · Knee	Questionable
Budda Baker	S · Groin	Questionable