Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

NFL scores › Week 7 › Cowboys at Eagles

CowboysDallas3-4away

FinalLincoln Financial Field

EaglesPhiladelphia2-5home

BEAVER PHI +4.5, lostBEAVER Under 43.5, lostBEAVER had DAL 54% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (DAL–PHI)	22–21	–	38–21
Spread	DAL −1.3	DAL −4.5	DAL by 17	PHI +4.5 ✗
Total	42.7	43.5	59	Under 43.5 ✗
PHI win chance	46%	+185	Lost

DAL by 8+

31%

DAL by 1–7

23%

PHI by 1–7

22%

PHI by 8+

24%

Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Eagles (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

+0.054 #10Offense EPA / play−0.058 #26

+0.134 #32Defense EPA / play allowed−0.030 #7

+2.2% #11Offense success rate−3.8% #30

+4.7% #32Defense success rate allowed−1.4% #6

+0.060 #9Passing EPA / dropback−0.063 #23

+0.197 #32Pass defense EPA allowed−0.037 #8

+0.037 #12Rushing EPA / carry−0.054 #22

+0.076 #31Rush defense EPA allowed−0.018 #12

+0.054 #9Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)−0.066 #28

+0.103 #32Early-down EPA allowed−0.045 #4

Scoring and special teams

+1.9 #7Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.4 #27

+3.6 #32Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.4 #9

+0.04 #17Special teams EPA / game+0.34 #9

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Dallas Cowboys

Javonte WilliamsRBTD

58%−5%

80% of the team's carries inside the 10

CeeDee LambWRTD ×2

39%−2%

41% of the team's end-zone targets

George PickensWRTD

35%+1%

23% of the team's end-zone targets

Ryan FlournoyWRNo TD

25%−3%

Jake FergusonTENo TD

21%−6%

Dak PrescottQBNo TD

10%−1%

Philadelphia Eagles

Dameon PierceRBTD

33%−16%

Cowboys have allowed 1.2 TDs a game to running backs lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual

Dallas GoedertTENo TD

30%−9%

23% of the team's end-zone targets · Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual

Makai LemonWRTD

20%−14%

Cowboys have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual

Darius CooperWRNo TD

19%−22%

Cowboys have allowed 1.3 TDs a game to receivers lately (average 0.9) · Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual

Saquon BarkleyRBQTD

19%−16%

Questionable (full practice): players like him play about 74% of the time; 25% if he plays · 40% of the team's carries inside the 10

Tanner McKeeQBNo TD

7.7%−6%

Vegas has the Eagles at about 20 points, 3 fewer than usual · A teammate at his position is out: more red-zone work to go around

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Dallas Cowboys
Passing		Yds
Dak Prescott QB		236212
Rushing		Yds
Javonte Williams RB		56155
Dak Prescott QB		68
Tyler Goodson RB		238
Receiving	Rec	Yds
CeeDee Lamb WR	6.25	7374
George Pickens WR	5.14	6257
Ryan Flournoy WR	3.54	3570
Jake Ferguson TE	2.40	160
Javonte Williams RB	2.20	120

Philadelphia Eagles
Passing		Yds
Tanner McKee QB		226211
Rushing		Yds
Saquon Barkley RB		4162
Dameon Pierce RB		4047▲
Tanner McKee QB		51
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Dallas Goedert TE	3.85	4048
Makai Lemon WR	3.37	2967
Darius Cooper WR	1.61	2217
Dameon Pierce RB	1.51	121
Johnny Mundt TE	–	4DNP

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Cowboys

Dak Prescott

EPA per dropback +0.09

STARTED · Eagles

Tanner McKee

EPA per dropback −0.10Not the usual starter

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

Dallas Cowboys
KaVontae Turpin	WR · Ribs	Out
Drew Shelton	T · Hamstring	Out
Dee Winters	LB · Calf	Out
Marist Liufau	LB · Forearm	Questionable
P.J. Locke	S · Foot	Questionable

Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith	WR · Hamstring	Out
Dontayvion Wicks	WR · Ankle	Out
Nolan Smith	LB · Concussion	Out
Michael Carter II	CB · Abdomen	Out
Saquon Barkley	RB · Hamstring	Questionable
Grant Calcaterra	TE · Back	Questionable
Eli Stowers	TE · Quadricep	Questionable
Landon Dickerson	G · Knee	Questionable
Jonathan Greenard	LB · Ankle	Questionable
Jalyx Hunt	LB · Knee	Questionable