Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

NFL scores › Week 7 › Bengals at Ravens

BengalsCincinnati4-2away

FinalM&T Bank Stadium

RavensBaltimore4-3home

BEAVER BAL +1.5, lostBEAVER Under 48.5, wonBEAVER had BAL 55% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line

	BEAVER	Market	Result	Call
Score (CIN–BAL)	23–25	–	35–13
Spread	BAL −1.6	CIN −1.5	CIN by 22	BAL +1.5 ✗
Total	47.9	48.5	48	Under 48.5 ✓
BAL win chance	55%	+136	Lost

CIN by 8+

23%

CIN by 1–7

22%

BAL by 1–7

23%

BAL by 8+

31%

Spread: 3.1 pts better than Vegas for Ravens (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (50% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 32 NFL teams.

Efficiency

+0.045 #12Offense EPA / play+0.068 #5

+0.011 #19Defense EPA / play allowed+0.005 #17

+2.6% #7Offense success rate+2.3% #10

+1.0% #25Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #12

+0.036 #13Passing EPA / dropback+0.111 #5

−0.008 #16Pass defense EPA allowed+0.010 #20

+0.023 #15Rushing EPA / carry+0.040 #11

+0.023 #24Rush defense EPA allowed−0.005 #13

−0.009 #19Early-down EPA (1st & 2nd)+0.072 #5

+0.023 #23Early-down EPA allowed−0.037 #7

Scoring and special teams

+1.9 #6Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.5 #11

+1.4 #23Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.0 #16

+0.08 #16Special teams EPA / game+0.26 #11

Touchdown scorers

▲ good matchup vs. his usual · full TD board

Cincinnati Bengals

Chase BrownRBNo TD

48%+4%

55% of the team's carries inside the 10

Ja'Marr ChaseWRTD

42%+1%

32% of the team's end-zone targets

Tee HigginsWRTD

33%+3%

21% of the team's targets

Samaje PerineRBTD

23%+7%

Mike GesickiTETD

21%+6%

22% of the team's end-zone targets

Joe BurrowQBNo TD

11%+5%

Baltimore Ravens

Derrick HenryRBNo TD

56%−3%

82% of the team's carries inside the 10

Zay FlowersWRTD

36%−2%

31% of the team's targets

Mark AndrewsTENo TD

26%Usual

31% of the team's end-zone targets

Tyler HuntleyQBNo TD

16%+3%

Ja'Kobi LaneWRNo TD

15%+1%

46% of the team's end-zone targets

Devontez WalkerWRNo TD

14%Usual

Player projections

typical game, with the likely range (middle half of outcomes); after the game the actual stat is shown · ▲ 5%+ above his usual · all player props

Cincinnati Bengals
Passing		Yds
Joe Burrow QB		260292
Rushing		Yds
Chase Brown RB		5039
Samaje Perine RB		1916
Joe Burrow QB		612
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Ja'Marr Chase WR	6.05	7062
Tee Higgins WR	4.66	59148
Chase Brown RB	3.64	2219
Mike Gesicki TE	1.91	176
Dohnte Meyers WR	1.80	150

Baltimore Ravens
Passing		Yds
Lamar Jackson QB		218DNP
Rushing		Yds
Derrick Henry RB		8145
Lamar Jackson QB		23DNP
Justice Hill RB		117
Receiving	Rec	Yds
Zay Flowers WR	5.18	67137
Mark Andrews TE	2.93	2523
Ja'Kobi Lane WR	2.23	2025
Rashod Bateman WR	1.42	1533
Josh Cuevas TE	1.02	935

Quarterbacks

career EPA per dropback (league average is about 0; older seasons count less)

STARTED · Bengals

Joe Burrow

EPA per dropback +0.08

STARTED · Ravens

Lamar Jackson

EPA per dropback +0.11

Injury report

players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable this week

Cincinnati Bengals
No one listed

Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson	QB · Ankle	Out
Tavius Robinson	LB · Pectoral	Out
Jaylinn Hawkins	S · Knee	Out
T.J. Tampa	CB · Knee	Doubtful
Broderick Washington	DE · Ankle	Questionable