College football scores › Week 9 › Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
Hancock Whitney Stadium, 77°, wind 11 mph
BEAVERLT −5.5, leanleanOver 57.5, leanleanBEAVER gives LT 66% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Louisiana Tech
South Alabama
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaBEAVER’s card
LeanLT −5.5, lean1.2 points off the line
- Over 57.5 lean, 0.2 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LT–USA) | 32–26 | – | |
| Spread | LT −6.7 | LT −5.5 | LT −5.5 |
| Total | 57.7 | 57.5 | Over 57.5 |
| USA win chance | 34% | +180 |
LT by 14+
32%
LT by 1–13
34%
USA by 1–13
24%
USA by 14+
10%
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened LT −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.013 #58Offense EPA / play−0.026 #81
−0.008 #48Defense EPA / play allowed+0.184 #129
−0.5% #74Offense success rate−3.6% #104
−2.2% #40Defense success rate allowed+9.0% #135
−0.031 #99Rushing EPA / play+0.058 #51
+0.081 #38Passing EPA / play+0.003 #57
+0.004 #65Rush defense EPA allowed+0.134 #114
−0.008 #48Pass defense EPA allowed+0.170 #108
−1.2 #72Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.5 #55
+1.1 #72Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+10.6 #128
Situational
+3.8% #24Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.3% #81
−1.4% #51Passing-down success allowed+10.5% #137
+0.31 #52Points per drive−0.16 #74
+0.09 #66Points per drive allowed+0.99 #119
Trenches
−0.26 #126Line yards per rush−0.09 #104
−0.29 #26Line yards per rush allowed+0.14 #93
+1.9% #120Runs stuffed at the line−2.1% #68
+5.6% #13Opponent runs stuffed−0.6% #79
−0.5% #95Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.4% #45
+3.6% #9Havoc created−1.2% #84
Big plays
−0.033 #88Rushing explosiveness+0.134 #15
+0.214 #29Passing explosiveness+0.274 #15
−0.06 #59Open-field yards per rush−0.46 #112
+0.105 #114Pass explosiveness allowed−0.015 #59
Style and schedule
57% #55Run rate66% #8
−11.2 #103Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.0 #107
Louisiana Tech: last 5 games
| W26-0 | Covered | |
| W24-0 | Covered | |
| W32-31 | Missed | |
| W31-29 | Covered | |
| L19-36 | Covered |
South Alabama: last 5 games
| L13-20 | Missed | |
| W56-49 | Covered | |
| W52-35 | Covered | |
| L21-45 | Missed | |
| W41-36 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekLTUSA
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyLouisiana TechSouth Alabama
Louisiana TechSouth AlabamaLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LT −5.5 | 57.5 | LT −218 · USA +180 |
| BEAVER fair line | LT −6.7 | 57.7 | LT −194 · USA +194 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| LT | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 32.3 / 21.0 | Points for / against | 35.1 / 32.4 |
| +11.3 | Avg margin | +2.7 |
| +8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.5 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.0 |