College football scores › Week 9 › Southern Miss at UL Monroe
Malone Stadium, 71°, wind 8 mph
BEAVERUSM −3.5, best betbest betUnder 55.5, leanleanBEAVER gives USM 74% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Southern Miss
UL Monroe
Southern MissUL MonroeBEAVER’s card
Best betUSM −3.5, best bet6.6 points off the line
- Under 55.5 lean, 4.0 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USM–ULM) | 31–21 | – | |
| Spread | USM −10.1 | USM −3.5 | USM −3.5 |
| Total | 51.5 | 55.5 | Under 55.5 |
| ULM win chance | 26% | +142 |
USM by 14+
40%
USM by 1–13
34%
ULM by 1–13
20%
ULM by 14+
6%
Spread: 6.6 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened USM −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.140 #121Offense EPA / play−0.235 #136
+0.110 #104Defense EPA / play allowed+0.166 #124
−4.1% #106Offense success rate−5.9% #122
+4.2% #104Defense success rate allowed+5.4% #117
+0.018 #76Rushing EPA / play−0.119 #130
−0.222 #124Passing EPA / play−0.264 #131
+0.113 #106Rush defense EPA allowed+0.159 #125
+0.145 #101Pass defense EPA allowed+0.196 #114
−6.0 #105Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−12.7 #134
+9.8 #126Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+12.1 #130
Situational
−10.2% #131Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.4% #126
+2.5% #96Passing-down success allowed+5.9% #123
−0.61 #97Points per drive−1.48 #133
+1.06 #120Points per drive allowed+1.45 #129
Trenches
+0.20 #50Line yards per rush−0.32 #130
+0.18 #99Line yards per rush allowed+0.51 #133
−4.8% #24Runs stuffed at the line+2.3% #125
−1.5% #91Opponent runs stuffed−5.6% #132
−0.8% #82Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.7% #133
−3.5% #127Havoc created−3.7% #129
Big plays
−0.061 #102Rushing explosiveness−0.159 #128
+0.125 #66Passing explosiveness+0.018 #108
−0.44 #110Open-field yards per rush−0.59 #126
−0.027 #48Pass explosiveness allowed+0.127 #122
Style and schedule
50% #123Run rate54% #81
−11.1 #101Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.4 #94
Southern Miss: last 5 games
| W35-31 | Covered | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L34-55 | Missed | |
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed |
UL Monroe: last 5 games
| W21-14 | Covered | |
| L0-24 | Missed | |
| L35-52 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| L35-38 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSMULM
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneySouthern MissUL Monroe
Southern MissUL MonroeLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | USM −3.5 | 55.5 | USM −170 · ULM +142 |
| BEAVER fair line | USM −10.1 | 51.5 | USM −281 · ULM +281 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USM | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-2 | Home | 0-3 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 25.7 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 37.3 |
| -6.7 | Avg margin | -17.1 |
| +1.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.8 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.7 |