College football scores › Week 9 › Sam Houston at Missouri State
Plaster Sports Complex, 63°, wind 9 mph
BEAVERSHSU +4.5, best betbest betOver 50.5, leanleanBEAVER gives SHSU 51% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Sam Houston
Missouri State
Sam HoustonMissouri StateBEAVER’s card
Best betSHSU +4.5, best bet4.8 points off the line
- Over 50.5 lean, 2.7 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SHSU–MOST) | 27–26 | – | |
| Spread | SHSU −0.3 | MOST −4.5 | SHSU +4.5 |
| Total | 53.2 | 50.5 | Over 50.5 |
| MOST win chance | 49% | −218 |
SHSU by 14+
20%
SHSU by 1–13
31%
MOST by 1–13
31%
MOST by 14+
18%
Spread: 4.8 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened MOST −6.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.189 #130Offense EPA / play−0.126 #113
+0.101 #99Defense EPA / play allowed+0.202 #131
−5.6% #120Offense success rate−3.0% #96
+3.5% #96Defense success rate allowed+8.0% #134
−0.223 #135Rushing EPA / play−0.115 #129
−0.196 #119Passing EPA / play−0.068 #84
+0.194 #132Rush defense EPA allowed+0.136 #116
+0.019 #58Pass defense EPA allowed+0.242 #128
−11.7 #130Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−6.8 #106
+6.6 #109Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+12.9 #132
Situational
−6.5% #114Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.1% #104
+1.6% #89Passing-down success allowed+4.0% #107
−1.51 #135Points per drive−0.58 #96
+0.68 #104Points per drive allowed+1.52 #130
Trenches
−0.55 #135Line yards per rush−0.06 #99
+0.32 #117Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #113
+6.7% #137Runs stuffed at the line−0.2% #98
−1.0% #83Opponent runs stuffed−4.7% #126
+5.2% #137Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.7% #128
+0.0% #56Havoc created−3.8% #131
Big plays
−0.084 #109Rushing explosiveness−0.147 #126
+0.088 #84Passing explosiveness+0.206 #31
−0.75 #134Open-field yards per rush−0.37 #100
−0.114 #20Pass explosiveness allowed+0.022 #74
Style and schedule
46% #134Run rate51% #120
−12.5 #111Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.3 #104
Sam Houston: last 5 games
| L24-30 | Missed | |
| L3-16 | Missed | |
| L3-35 | Missed | |
| L14-49 | Missed | |
| W59-0 | Covered |
Missouri State: last 5 games
| L38-61 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Covered | |
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| L24-34 | Covered | |
| L24-30 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSHSUMOST
Loading the thread…
The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneySam HoustonMissouri State
Sam HoustonMissouri StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MOST −4.5 | 50.5 | SHSU +180 · MOST −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | SHSU −0.3 | 53.2 | SHSU −103 · MOST +103 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SHSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-4 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 20.1 / 25.3 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 34.9 |
| -5.1 | Avg margin | -10.4 |
| +3.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.8 |
| 54.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.0 |