College football scores › Week 9 › Delaware at Western Kentucky
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, 62°, wind 5 mph
BEAVERWKU +1.5, best betbest betUnder 57.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives WKU 60% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Delaware
Western Kentucky
DelawareWestern KentuckyBEAVER’s card
Best betWKU +1.5, best bet5.5 points off the line
- Under 57.5 best bet, 5.4 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (DEL–WKU) | 24–28 | – | |
| Spread | WKU −4.0 | DEL −1.5 | WKU +1.5 |
| Total | 52.1 | 57.5 | Under 57.5 |
| WKU win chance | 60% | −105 |
DEL by 14+
13%
DEL by 1–13
27%
WKU by 1–13
33%
WKU by 14+
26%
Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for Western Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.4 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened DEL −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.047 #85Offense EPA / play−0.134 #119
+0.153 #119Defense EPA / play allowed+0.099 #98
−3.4% #102Offense success rate−5.7% #121
+5.8% #122Defense success rate allowed+0.9% #74
−0.044 #106Rushing EPA / play−0.100 #124
−0.046 #74Passing EPA / play−0.167 #111
+0.046 #82Rush defense EPA allowed+0.188 #130
+0.232 #125Pass defense EPA allowed−0.028 #41
−4.5 #91Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.0 #111
+9.8 #127Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.6 #110
Situational
−2.9% #76Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.4% #84
+4.4% #111Passing-down success allowed+5.2% #119
−0.71 #105Points per drive−0.55 #94
+1.21 #125Points per drive allowed+1.23 #126
Trenches
−0.27 #128Line yards per rush−0.26 #124
−0.03 #62Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #111
+2.8% #128Runs stuffed at the line+2.1% #123
−0.1% #73Opponent runs stuffed−2.7% #108
+2.8% #134Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #83
−0.3% #62Havoc created−1.8% #98
Big plays
−0.093 #116Rushing explosiveness−0.096 #117
+0.237 #23Passing explosiveness+0.191 #38
−0.57 #123Open-field yards per rush−0.63 #128
−0.031 #46Pass explosiveness allowed+0.130 #123
Style and schedule
47% #132Run rate51% #116
−13.4 #114Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.3 #89
Delaware: last 5 games
| W61-38 | Covered | |
| L30-33 | Missed | |
| L14-30 | Missed | |
| L3-42 | Missed | |
| W22-14 | Covered |
Western Kentucky: last 5 games
| W16-3 | Covered | |
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| W52-7 | Covered | |
| L0-38 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekDELWKU
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyDelawareWestern Kentucky
DelawareWestern KentuckyLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DEL −1.5 | 57.5 | DEL −115 · WKU −105 |
| BEAVER fair line | WKU −4 | 52.1 | DEL +150 · WKU −150 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| DEL | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-4 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 28.3 / 28.4 | Points for / against | 21.3 / 30.6 |
| -0.1 | Avg margin | -9.3 |
| +0.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.8 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.1 |