College football scores › Week 9 › FIU at Liberty
BEAVERLIB −14, leanleanUnder 45.5, leanleanBEAVER gives LIB 84% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
FIU
Liberty
FIULibertyBEAVER’s card
LeanLIB −14, lean1.8 points off the line
- Under 45.5 lean, 0.4 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–LIB) | 15–30 | – | |
| Spread | LIB −15.8 | LIB −14 | LIB −14 |
| Total | 45.1 | 45.5 | Under 45.5 |
| LIB win chance | 84% | −600 |
FIU by 14+
3%
FIU by 1–13
13%
LIB by 1–13
30%
LIB by 14+
55%
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Liberty (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened LIB −11.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.178 #128Offense EPA / play−0.011 #73
+0.046 #78Defense EPA / play allowed+0.002 #56
−6.3% #128Offense success rate+2.2% #46
+1.2% #78Defense success rate allowed−0.9% #46
−0.158 #132Rushing EPA / play+0.062 #50
−0.184 #114Passing EPA / play−0.020 #67
+0.036 #79Rush defense EPA allowed+0.051 #85
+0.064 #74Pass defense EPA allowed−0.002 #51
−12.4 #132Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.2 #75
+0.3 #65Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.1 #38
Situational
−4.1% #92Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.1% #78
−0.3% #60Passing-down success allowed−0.8% #55
−1.64 #137Points per drive−0.22 #79
+0.10 #68Points per drive allowed−0.02 #59
Trenches
−0.24 #121Line yards per rush+0.36 #29
+0.11 #85Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #88
+0.2% #105Runs stuffed at the line−5.6% #15
−1.4% #87Opponent runs stuffed+1.9% #48
−0.4% #98Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.1% #50
−1.0% #80Havoc created−0.6% #74
Big plays
−0.222 #135Rushing explosiveness−0.105 #119
+0.096 #79Passing explosiveness+0.296 #10
−0.96 #138Open-field yards per rush−0.05 #54
+0.067 #97Pass explosiveness allowed+0.086 #101
Style and schedule
53% #93Run rate66% #9
−16.7 #136Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.8 #124
FIU: last 5 games
| L23-26 | Missed | |
| L24-27 | Push | |
| W22-3 | Covered | |
| W20-3 | Missed | |
| L10-16 | Missed |
Liberty: last 5 games
| W34-6 | Covered | |
| W35-3 | Covered | |
| W30-14 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Covered | |
| W51-15 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFIULIB
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyFIULiberty
FIULibertyLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LIB −14 | 45.5 | FIU +440 · LIB −600 |
| BEAVER fair line | LIB −15.8 | 45.1 | FIU +542 · LIB −542 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FIU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 3-1 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 20.1 / 16.3 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 14.0 |
| +3.9 | Avg margin | +17.6 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.8 |
| 70.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.7 |