College football scores › Week 9 › Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, 65°, wind 6 mph
BEAVERKENN +2.5, best betbest betUnder 51.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives KENN 57% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Kennesaw State
Middle Tennessee
Kennesaw StateMiddle TennesseeBEAVER’s card
Best betKENN +2.5, best bet5.4 points off the line
- Under 51.5 best bet, 4.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KENN–MTSU) | 25–22 | – | |
| Spread | KENN −2.9 | MTSU −2.5 | KENN +2.5 |
| Total | 47.0 | 51.5 | Under 51.5 |
| MTSU win chance | 43% | −142 |
KENN by 14+
24%
KENN by 1–13
33%
MTSU by 1–13
29%
MTSU by 14+
14%
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.121 #112Offense EPA / play−0.086 #100
+0.113 #107Defense EPA / play allowed+0.143 #115
−3.1% #98Offense success rate−4.4% #110
+2.8% #90Defense success rate allowed+7.0% #129
−0.039 #105Rushing EPA / play−0.049 #109
−0.182 #113Passing EPA / play−0.135 #100
+0.018 #72Rush defense EPA allowed+0.149 #120
+0.189 #113Pass defense EPA allowed+0.132 #99
−11.0 #127Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.2 #121
+3.7 #86Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.7 #125
Situational
−5.4% #106Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.6% #85
+5.5% #121Passing-down success allowed+2.7% #100
−1.21 #121Points per drive−1.28 #127
+0.52 #96Points per drive allowed+1.11 #123
Trenches
−0.11 #110Line yards per rush+0.02 #81
+0.08 #78Line yards per rush allowed+0.65 #138
+5.2% #134Runs stuffed at the line+1.1% #114
+1.5% #53Opponent runs stuffed−5.0% #128
−2.1% #52Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.2% #75
−3.3% #125Havoc created−6.0% #137
Big plays
+0.028 #62Rushing explosiveness+0.041 #54
−0.199 #138Passing explosiveness+0.005 #109
−0.67 #132Open-field yards per rush−0.32 #94
−0.118 #19Pass explosiveness allowed−0.089 #27
Style and schedule
51% #118Run rate48% #129
−9.9 #93Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.9 #133
Kennesaw State: last 5 games
| L6-34 | Missed | |
| L21-24 | Missed | |
| L26-27 | Covered | |
| L14-17 | Covered | |
| L9-42 | Covered |
Middle Tennessee: last 5 games
| W26-23 | Covered | |
| W33-30 | Covered | |
| L0-55 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| W27-20 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKENNMTSU
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyKennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
Kennesaw StateMiddle TennesseeLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MTSU −2.5 | 51.5 | KENN +120 · MTSU −142 |
| BEAVER fair line | KENN −2.9 | 47.0 | KENN −134 · MTSU +134 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KENN | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 20.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 23.3 / 27.6 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | -4.3 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 55.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.1 |