College football scores › Week 9 › Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
Aggie Memorial Stadium, 70°, wind 5 mph
BEAVEROver 49.5, leanleanJXST −3.5, leanleanBEAVER gives JXST 64% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Jacksonville State
New Mexico State
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico StateBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 49.5, lean3.3 points off the line
- JXST −3.5 lean, 2.1 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JXST–NMSU) | 29–24 | – | |
| Spread | JXST −5.6 | JXST −3.5 | JXST −3.5 |
| Total | 52.8 | 49.5 | Over 49.5 |
| NMSU win chance | 36% | +136 |
JXST by 14+
30%
JXST by 1–13
34%
NMSU by 1–13
25%
NMSU by 14+
11%
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened JXST −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.025 #80Offense EPA / play−0.212 #134
+0.102 #101Defense EPA / play allowed+0.070 #86
+0.9% #64Offense success rate−5.4% #117
+4.1% #103Defense success rate allowed+2.2% #84
−0.000 #88Rushing EPA / play−0.090 #121
−0.029 #69Passing EPA / play−0.250 #130
+0.154 #123Rush defense EPA allowed+0.025 #73
+0.035 #63Pass defense EPA allowed+0.087 #86
−4.4 #90Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.8 #110
+6.0 #104Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.5 #107
Situational
−0.7% #57Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.9% #103
+0.5% #71Passing-down success allowed+1.6% #87
−0.29 #82Points per drive−1.13 #116
+0.97 #118Points per drive allowed+0.71 #106
Trenches
−0.10 #107Line yards per rush−0.08 #101
+0.25 #108Line yards per rush allowed−0.12 #48
+1.1% #115Runs stuffed at the line−3.4% #45
−5.1% #129Opponent runs stuffed+3.3% #27
−1.0% #77Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.6% #112
−1.3% #89Havoc created−2.2% #106
Big plays
+0.014 #67Rushing explosiveness+0.011 #72
+0.085 #85Passing explosiveness+0.130 #63
−0.28 #87Open-field yards per rush−0.21 #82
+0.033 #79Pass explosiveness allowed−0.031 #44
Style and schedule
58% #42Run rate51% #113
−14.4 #121Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.9 #112
Jacksonville State: last 5 games
| W27-24 | Push | |
| W27-26 | Missed | |
| W23-13 | Covered | |
| W31-27 | Covered | |
| L27-29 | Missed |
New Mexico State: last 5 games
| W30-24 | Covered | |
| L3-22 | Missed | |
| W34-13 | Covered | |
| L18-42 | Missed | |
| L19-29 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekJXSTNMSU
Loading the thread…
The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyJacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | JXST −3.5 | 49.5 | JXST −162 · NMSU +136 |
| BEAVER fair line | JXST −5.6 | 52.8 | JXST −176 · NMSU +176 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| JXST | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-3 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 27.3 / 22.7 | Points for / against | 24.6 / 25.4 |
| +4.6 | Avg margin | -0.9 |
| +0.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.4 |
| 58.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.6 |