BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Troy at James Madison
Troy3-4away
BEAVER projects18
Bridgeforth Stadium, 57°, wind 6 mph
James Madison7-1home
BEAVER projects40
BEAVEROver 49.5, best betbest betJMU −21, leanleanBEAVER gives JMU 91% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Troy
James Madison

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Over 49.5, best bet8.6 points off the line
  • JMU −21 lean, 0.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (TROY–JMU)18–40–
SpreadJMU −21.5JMU −21JMU −21
Total58.149.5Over 49.5
JMU win chance91%−1600
TROY by 14+
1%
TROY by 1–13
8%
JMU by 1–13
23%
JMU by 14+
68%

Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 8.6 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened JMU −17.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.100 #105Offense EPA / play+0.038 #44
+0.117 #109Defense EPA / play allowed+0.021 #69
−4.2% #108Offense success rate−0.5% #73
+4.3% #106Defense success rate allowed+0.1% #67
+0.011 #82Rushing EPA / play+0.054 #56
−0.188 #117Passing EPA / play+0.061 #44
+0.117 #107Rush defense EPA allowed−0.014 #54
+0.078 #84Pass defense EPA allowed+0.030 #60
−8.6 #114Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.9 #27
+6.8 #113Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.0 #64
Situational
−8.4% #123Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.9% #30
+1.1% #78Passing-down success allowed+2.9% #104
−1.23 #122Points per drive+0.45 #43
+0.65 #101Points per drive allowed+0.01 #61
Trenches
−0.01 #90Line yards per rush+0.03 #79
+0.11 #86Line yards per rush allowed+0.00 #68
−1.7% #73Runs stuffed at the line−3.7% #38
−0.7% #80Opponent runs stuffed−2.5% #106
+1.3% #122Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.2% #18
−2.4% #111Havoc created−1.0% #78
Big plays
+0.032 #58Rushing explosiveness+0.046 #51
+0.196 #37Passing explosiveness+0.205 #32
−0.09 #65Open-field yards per rush+0.26 #25
+0.027 #77Pass explosiveness allowed+0.000 #64
Style and schedule
60% #28Run rate57% #52
−14.6 #123Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.2 #127

Troy: last 5 games

L14-21
vsUL Monroe
Missed
L6-33
atLouisiana
Missed
W55-34
vsSouthern Miss
Covered
L10-21
atUtah State
Missed
L17-27
atMissouri
Covered

James Madison: last 5 games

L31-34
atApp State
Missed
W49-22
vsGeorgia State
Covered
W27-24
atGeorgia Southern
Missed
W45-17
vsMarshall
Covered
W46-20
atOld Dominion
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.24−0.16−0.07+0.01+0.10Entering week123456789Troy · 1: −0.15Troy · 2: −0.19Troy · 3: −0.16Troy · 4: −0.10Troy · 5: −0.18Troy · 6: −0.17Troy · 7: −0.16Troy · 8: −0.18Troy · 9: −0.22James Madison · 1: −0.07James Madison · 2: −0.03James Madison · 3: −0.08James Madison · 4: +0.00James Madison · 5: +0.07James Madison · 6: +0.03James Madison · 7: +0.03James Madison · 8: +0.04James Madison · 9: +0.02
● Troy● James Madison