College football scores › Week 9 › App State at Georgia Southern
Allen E. Paulson Stadium, 71°, wind 13 mph
BEAVERUnder 56.5, leanleanGASO −5.5, leanleanBEAVER gives GASO 65% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
App State
Georgia Southern
App StateGeorgia SouthernBEAVER’s card
LeanUnder 56.5, lean2.4 points off the line
- GASO −5.5 lean, 0.8 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (APP–GASO) | 24–30 | – | |
| Spread | GASO −6.3 | GASO −5.5 | GASO −5.5 |
| Total | 54.1 | 56.5 | Under 56.5 |
| GASO win chance | 65% | −205 |
APP by 14+
10%
APP by 1–13
25%
GASO by 1–13
34%
GASO by 14+
31%
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened GASO −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.069 #93Offense EPA / play+0.017 #55
+0.085 #90Defense EPA / play allowed+0.058 #80
−3.1% #97Offense success rate+1.2% #60
+5.0% #112Defense success rate allowed+1.2% #80
−0.100 #125Rushing EPA / play−0.030 #98
+0.002 #59Passing EPA / play+0.054 #45
+0.141 #118Rush defense EPA allowed+0.009 #66
+0.046 #68Pass defense EPA allowed+0.169 #106
−4.1 #86Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.6 #84
+4.7 #96Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.1 #76
Situational
−2.2% #70Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.2% #44
−0.1% #64Passing-down success allowed+1.5% #83
−0.47 #87Points per drive−0.45 #86
+0.35 #83Points per drive allowed+0.36 #84
Trenches
−0.33 #131Line yards per rush+0.11 #67
+0.10 #82Line yards per rush allowed+0.10 #83
+1.5% #117Runs stuffed at the line−1.7% #72
−2.4% #104Opponent runs stuffed+0.6% #60
−0.5% #93Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.7% #60
−1.8% #99Havoc created−0.4% #65
Big plays
−0.038 #92Rushing explosiveness−0.078 #108
+0.091 #82Passing explosiveness−0.032 #123
−0.66 #131Open-field yards per rush−0.07 #62
−0.181 #9Pass explosiveness allowed−0.042 #37
Style and schedule
53% #96Run rate47% #131
−14.4 #122Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.0 #77
App State: last 5 games
| W34-31 | Covered | |
| W35-32 | Covered | |
| L3-10 | Missed | |
| L31-41 | Covered | |
| W26-21 | Missed |
Georgia Southern: last 5 games
| W23-15 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Covered | |
| W31-24 | Covered | |
| L28-42 | Covered | |
| L27-31 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAPPGASO
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyApp StateGeorgia Southern
App StateGeorgia SouthernLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | GASO −5.5 | 56.5 | APP +170 · GASO −205 |
| BEAVER fair line | GASO −6.3 | 54.1 | APP +188 · GASO −188 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| APP | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 30.1 / 23.1 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 23.0 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +4.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.5 |
| 67.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.1 |