College football scores › Week 10 › Toledo at Sacramento State
Hornet Stadium, 70°, wind 3 mph
BEAVERBEAVER gives TOL 92% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Toledo–––
Sacramento State–––
Toledo–––Sacramento State–––BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TOL–SAC) | 37–15 | – | |
| Spread | TOL −22.8 | No line | |
| Total | 52.2 | – | |
| SAC win chance | 8% | – |
TOL by 14+
71%
TOL by 1–13
21%
SAC by 1–13
7%
SAC by 14+
1%
BEAVER makes its calls once Vegas posts a line.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.005 #68Offense EPA / play−0.272 #138
−0.006 #50Defense EPA / play allowed+0.206 #132
−1.7% #82Offense success rate−8.6% #134
−2.7% #31Defense success rate allowed+5.6% #119
−0.010 #90Rushing EPA / play−0.229 #136
+0.021 #52Passing EPA / play−0.302 #132
−0.049 #37Rush defense EPA allowed+0.159 #126
+0.099 #90Pass defense EPA allowed+0.286 #134
+1.7 #53Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−17.2 #138
+5.2 #100Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+15.6 #137
Situational
−5.5% #107Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.8% #137
−0.9% #53Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #54
+0.06 #63Points per drive−1.93 #138
+0.46 #93Points per drive allowed+2.30 #137
Trenches
+0.10 #70Line yards per rush−0.63 #136
−0.09 #58Line yards per rush allowed+0.55 #135
−2.9% #53Runs stuffed at the line+6.3% #136
+2.5% #40Opponent runs stuffed−6.4% #134
−1.6% #61Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.8% #129
−1.0% #81Havoc created−6.2% #138
Big plays
+0.052 #49Rushing explosiveness−0.173 #130
+0.183 #40Passing explosiveness−0.080 #130
−0.19 #78Open-field yards per rush−0.62 #127
+0.109 #117Pass explosiveness allowed+0.061 #91
Style and schedule
56% #62Run rate45% #135
−14.4 #120Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−18.9 #137
Toledo: last 5 games
| W45-38 | Covered | |
| W34-14 | Covered | |
| L8-23 | Missed | |
| W39-24 | Missed | |
| W41-16 | Covered |
Sacramento State: last 5 games
| L17-34 | Missed | |
| L7-48 | Missed | |
| L10-38 | Missed | |
| L6-35 | Missed | |
| L10-31 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTOLSAC
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyToledo–––Sacramento State–––
Toledo–––Sacramento State–––Lines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | – | – | – |
| BEAVER fair line | TOL −22.8 | 52.2 | TOL −1214 · SAC +1214 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 1-7 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 0-5 |
| 4-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-3-1 | Against the spread | 2-6 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 37.4 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 15.2 / 32.9 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | -17.6 |
| +1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.8 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 47.4 |