College football scores › Week 9 › Bowling Green at Western Michigan
Waldo Stadium, 58°, wind 12 mph
BEAVERWMU −13.5, best betbest betOver 44.5, leanleanBEAVER gives WMU 89% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Bowling Green
Western Michigan
Bowling GreenWestern MichiganBEAVER’s card
Best betWMU −13.5, best bet5.4 points off the line
- Over 44.5 lean, 2.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BGSU–WMU) | 14–33 | – | |
| Spread | WMU −18.9 | WMU −13.5 | WMU −13.5 |
| Total | 46.8 | 44.5 | Over 44.5 |
| WMU win chance | 89% | −550 |
BGSU by 14+
2%
BGSU by 1–13
10%
WMU by 1–13
26%
WMU by 14+
62%
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened WMU −15.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.197 #132Offense EPA / play−0.025 #79
+0.134 #113Defense EPA / play allowed+0.064 #82
−4.3% #109Offense success rate−0.8% #76
+7.3% #132Defense success rate allowed+4.9% #110
−0.174 #133Rushing EPA / play+0.050 #59
−0.147 #103Passing EPA / play−0.102 #93
+0.159 #127Rush defense EPA allowed+0.016 #71
+0.123 #97Pass defense EPA allowed+0.101 #91
−12.2 #131Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.7 #92
+7.5 #118Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.0 #56
Situational
−8.6% #127Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.2% #93
+4.2% #109Passing-down success allowed+6.4% #124
−1.16 #119Points per drive−0.51 #92
+1.33 #128Points per drive allowed+0.18 #72
Trenches
−0.28 #129Line yards per rush−0.00 #89
+0.50 #131Line yards per rush allowed+0.24 #106
+2.1% #121Runs stuffed at the line−2.2% #64
−2.7% #107Opponent runs stuffed−2.3% #101
+1.6% #127Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.7% #40
−3.0% #120Havoc created−1.5% #91
Big plays
−0.295 #137Rushing explosiveness+0.089 #37
+0.084 #87Passing explosiveness−0.058 #127
−0.90 #136Open-field yards per rush−0.36 #99
+0.041 #83Pass explosiveness allowed−0.019 #57
Style and schedule
60% #32Run rate67% #7
−10.5 #96Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.9 #100
Bowling Green: last 5 games
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| L31-32 | Missed | |
| W38-10 | Covered | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| L6-14 | Covered |
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| L38-45 | Missed | |
| W21-14 | Missed | |
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L7-32 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekBGSUWMU
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyBowling GreenWestern Michigan
Bowling GreenWestern MichiganLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WMU −13.5 | 44.5 | BGSU +410 · WMU −550 |
| BEAVER fair line | WMU −18.9 | 46.8 | BGSU +783 · WMU −783 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| BGSU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 3-2 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 18.8 / 29.8 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 20.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +6.2 |
| -2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.2 |