BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Kent State at Sacramento State
Kent State3-5away
BEAVER projects27
Hornet Stadium, 63°, wind 6 mph
Sacramento State1-7home
BEAVER projects20
BEAVERSAC +10, leanleanOver 46.5, leanleanBEAVER gives KENT 69% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Kent State
Sacramento State

BEAVER’s card

Lean
SAC +10, lean2.3 points off the line
  • Over 46.5 lean, 0.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (KENT–SAC)27–20–
SpreadKENT −7.7KENT −10SAC +10
Total47.046.5Over 46.5
SAC win chance31%+310
KENT by 14+
34%
KENT by 1–13
34%
SAC by 1–13
23%
SAC by 14+
8%

Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened KENT −9.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.190 #131Offense EPA / play−0.272 #138
+0.088 #92Defense EPA / play allowed+0.206 #132
−9.5% #137Offense success rate−8.6% #134
+5.8% #123Defense success rate allowed+5.6% #119
−0.187 #134Rushing EPA / play−0.229 #136
−0.129 #98Passing EPA / play−0.302 #132
+0.077 #93Rush defense EPA allowed+0.159 #126
+0.102 #92Pass defense EPA allowed+0.286 #134
−13.1 #135Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−17.2 #138
+7.8 #121Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+15.6 #137
Situational
−10.6% #133Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.8% #137
+2.7% #99Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #54
−1.49 #134Points per drive−1.93 #138
+1.85 #136Points per drive allowed+2.30 #137
Trenches
−0.51 #134Line yards per rush−0.63 #136
+0.32 #118Line yards per rush allowed+0.55 #135
+1.8% #118Runs stuffed at the line+6.3% #136
−3.0% #110Opponent runs stuffed−6.4% #134
+0.7% #114Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.8% #129
−1.0% #79Havoc created−6.2% #138
Big plays
−0.008 #80Rushing explosiveness−0.173 #130
+0.274 #14Passing explosiveness−0.080 #130
−0.80 #135Open-field yards per rush−0.62 #127
−0.051 #34Pass explosiveness allowed+0.061 #91
Style and schedule
55% #67Run rate45% #135
−6.6 #75Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−18.9 #137

Kent State: last 5 games

W35-20
vsAkron
Covered
L2-29
atSouth Florida
Missed
L7-38
atWestern Michigan
Missed
L10-13
vsOhio
Covered
W26-13
vsBall State
Covered

Sacramento State: last 5 games

L17-34
atBall State
Missed
L7-48
vsOhio
Missed
L10-38
atBowling Green
Missed
L6-35
vsMassachusetts
Missed
L10-31
vsNorth Dakota State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.52−0.38−0.24−0.10+0.04Entering week123456789Kent State · 1: −0.24Kent State · 2: −0.29Kent State · 3: −0.27Kent State · 4: −0.28Kent State · 5: −0.28Kent State · 6: −0.26Kent State · 7: −0.27Kent State · 8: −0.27Kent State · 9: −0.28Sacramento State · 1: −0.27Sacramento State · 2: −0.35Sacramento State · 3: −0.38Sacramento State · 4: −0.39Sacramento State · 5: −0.42Sacramento State · 6: −0.40Sacramento State · 7: −0.41Sacramento State · 8: −0.47Sacramento State · 9: −0.48
● Kent State● Sacramento State