College football scores › Week 9 › UTEP at North Dakota State
BEAVERUTEP +25.5, best betbest betOver 43.5, leanleanBEAVER gives NDSU 92% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
UTEP
North Dakota State
UTEPNorth Dakota StateBEAVER’s card
Best betUTEP +25.5, best bet3.3 points off the line
- Over 43.5 lean, 3.6 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTEP–NDSU) | 12–35 | – | |
| Spread | NDSU −22.2 | NDSU −25.5 | UTEP +25.5 |
| Total | 47.1 | 43.5 | Over 43.5 |
| NDSU win chance | 92% | −3200 |
UTEP by 14+
1%
UTEP by 1–13
7%
NDSU by 1–13
22%
NDSU by 14+
70%
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NDSU −27.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.206 #133Offense EPA / play−0.100 #106
+0.222 #136Defense EPA / play allowed−0.064 #32
−8.2% #132Offense success rate−4.9% #115
+9.4% #136Defense success rate allowed−0.7% #51
−0.061 #113Rushing EPA / play−0.075 #115
−0.307 #134Passing EPA / play−0.114 #94
+0.158 #124Rush defense EPA allowed−0.078 #28
+0.341 #136Pass defense EPA allowed−0.002 #50
−12.6 #133Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.1 #97
+14.3 #136Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.7 #41
Situational
−8.4% #124Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.9% #88
+7.5% #128Passing-down success allowed−5.2% #16
−1.27 #125Points per drive−0.49 #89
+2.59 #138Points per drive allowed−0.10 #55
Trenches
−0.23 #120Line yards per rush−0.18 #116
+0.30 #116Line yards per rush allowed+0.03 #70
+2.2% #124Runs stuffed at the line+3.2% #130
−1.5% #90Opponent runs stuffed+2.3% #43
+4.0% #136Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #81
−4.5% #134Havoc created−0.1% #59
Big plays
+0.131 #17Rushing explosiveness+0.135 #14
+0.269 #17Passing explosiveness+0.244 #22
−0.33 #97Open-field yards per rush−0.52 #119
+0.007 #69Pass explosiveness allowed+0.035 #81
Style and schedule
58% #45Run rate61% #20
−7.5 #80Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.7 #132
UTEP: last 5 games
| L11-24 | Missed | |
| L13-30 | Missed | |
| L7-61 | Missed | |
| L7-33 | Missed | |
| L17-52 | Missed |
North Dakota State: last 5 games
| L16-21 | Missed | |
| W31-17 | Missed | |
| L7-13 | Missed | |
| W28-0 | Covered | |
| W31-10 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUTEPNDSU
Loading the thread…
The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyUTEPNorth Dakota State
UTEPNorth Dakota StateLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NDSU −25.5 | 43.5 | UTEP +1400 · NDSU −3200 |
| BEAVER fair line | NDSU −22.2 | 47.1 | UTEP +1182 · NDSU −1182 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UTEP | NDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 6-2 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 1-6 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 15.1 / 37.3 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 12.5 |
| -22.1 | Avg margin | +15.2 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.9 |
| 44.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |