College football scores › Week 9 › Northern Illinois at UNLV
BEAVERUnder 53.5, leanleanNIU +23.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UNLV 93% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Northern Illinois
UNLV
Northern IllinoisUNLVBEAVER’s card
LeanUnder 53.5, lean0.9 points off the line
- NIU +23.5 lean, 0.1 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–UNLV) | 15–38 | – | |
| Spread | UNLV −23.4 | UNLV −23.5 | NIU +23.5 |
| Total | 52.6 | 53.5 | Under 53.5 |
| UNLV win chance | 93% | −2400 |
NIU by 14+
1%
NIU by 1–13
6%
UNLV by 1–13
21%
UNLV by 14+
72%
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UNLV −24.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.180 #129Offense EPA / play−0.077 #95
+0.253 #138Defense EPA / play allowed+0.028 #71
−6.5% #130Offense success rate−4.4% #112
+10.1% #137Defense success rate allowed+0.3% #72
−0.034 #102Rushing EPA / play−0.047 #108
−0.237 #127Passing EPA / play−0.124 #97
+0.201 #134Rush defense EPA allowed+0.084 #97
−0.128 #18Pass defense EPA allowed−0.032 #39
−11.4 #128Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.6 #101
+13.3 #134Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.7 #68
Situational
−10.8% #135Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.3% #95
+10.0% #135Passing-down success allowed+1.2% #80
−1.14 #117Points per drive−0.77 #106
+1.74 #134Points per drive allowed+0.08 #65
Trenches
+0.10 #69Line yards per rush−0.04 #97
+0.27 #112Line yards per rush allowed+0.47 #127
+0.9% #110Runs stuffed at the line−1.2% #79
−3.2% #113Opponent runs stuffed−2.5% #105
+0.6% #111Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.3% #108
−5.2% #135Havoc created−0.6% #70
Big plays
+0.091 #34Rushing explosiveness−0.007 #79
+0.063 #90Passing explosiveness+0.120 #69
−0.29 #91Open-field yards per rush−0.11 #73
−0.141 #13Pass explosiveness allowed+0.115 #118
Style and schedule
52% #109Run rate59% #38
−5.1 #66Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.0 #84
Northern Illinois: last 5 games
| L21-56 | Missed | |
| L23-41 | Missed | |
| L7-28 | Missed | |
| L14-35 | Missed | |
| L17-42 | Covered |
UNLV: last 5 games
| L31-41 | Missed | |
| W13-7 | Covered | |
| W39-31 | Covered | |
| W38-10 | Covered | |
| L6-44 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNIUUNLV
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyNorthern IllinoisUNLV
Northern IllinoisUNLVLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UNLV −23.5 | 53.5 | NIU +1200 · UNLV −2400 |
| BEAVER fair line | UNLV −23.4 | 52.6 | NIU +1322 · UNLV −1322 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NIU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-7 | Record | 4-3 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 2-2 |
| 1-6 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 15.1 / 38.6 | Points for / against | 24.1 / 23.7 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +0.4 |
| -10.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.5 |
| 51.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.9 |