BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › New Mexico at San José State
New Mexico6-1away
BEAVER projects32
CEFCU Stadium, 64°, wind 5 mph
San José State4-4home
BEAVER projects16
BEAVEROver 41.5, best betbest betUNM −14.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UNM 86% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
New Mexico
San José State

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Over 41.5, best bet6.3 points off the line
  • UNM −14.5 lean, 2.3 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (UNM–SJSU)32–16–
SpreadUNM −16.8UNM −14.5UNM −14.5
Total47.841.5Over 41.5
SJSU win chance14%+490
UNM by 14+
57%
UNM by 1–13
29%
SJSU by 1–13
12%
SJSU by 14+
2%

Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.3 pts above Vegas (54% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.038 #84Offense EPA / play−0.135 #120
−0.080 #26Defense EPA / play allowed+0.086 #91
−3.5% #103Offense success rate−7.4% #131
−3.6% #27Defense success rate allowed+4.4% #107
+0.071 #43Rushing EPA / play−0.103 #126
−0.153 #106Passing EPA / play−0.160 #108
−0.055 #35Rush defense EPA allowed+0.112 #105
−0.067 #34Pass defense EPA allowed+0.065 #77
+2.2 #49Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.4 #122
−3.6 #36Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.0 #91
Situational
−3.1% #79Passing-down success (3rd & long)−13.1% #138
−1.8% #48Passing-down success allowed+0.6% #73
+0.33 #51Points per drive−1.44 #131
−0.18 #48Points per drive allowed+0.34 #82
Trenches
+0.02 #82Line yards per rush−0.09 #105
−0.76 #5Line yards per rush allowed+0.26 #109
−3.5% #42Runs stuffed at the line+0.1% #101
+9.6% #2Opponent runs stuffed−4.1% #121
−1.5% #68Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.2% #121
+4.9% #5Havoc created−1.8% #96
Big plays
+0.193 #9Rushing explosiveness−0.055 #99
+0.286 #11Passing explosiveness+0.004 #110
−0.10 #71Open-field yards per rush−0.66 #130
−0.024 #50Pass explosiveness allowed−0.023 #52
Style and schedule
64% #11Run rate51% #114
−15.0 #126Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.0 #118

New Mexico: last 5 games

W21-16
vsNorth Dakota State
Covered
W21-10
atHawai'i
Missed
W61-7
vsUTEP
Covered
W42-18
atNew Mexico State
Covered
L6-14
atOklahoma
Covered

San José State: last 5 games

L13-28
atNevada
Missed
W24-11
atUTEP
Covered
L13-16
vsWyoming
Missed
W20-16
atHawai'i
Covered
L10-26
vsFresno State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.24−0.16−0.08+0.00+0.09Entering week123456789New Mexico · 1: −0.17New Mexico · 2: −0.05New Mexico · 3: −0.07New Mexico · 4: −0.01New Mexico · 5: +0.02New Mexico · 6: +0.06New Mexico · 7: +0.06New Mexico · 8: +0.01New Mexico · 9: +0.04San José State · 1: −0.16San José State · 2: −0.04San José State · 3: −0.15San José State · 4: −0.21San José State · 5: −0.22San José State · 6: −0.18San José State · 7: −0.19San José State · 8: −0.21San José State · 9: −0.22
● New Mexico● San José State