College football scores › Week 9 › UAB at South Florida
Raymond James Stadium, 85°, wind 16 mph
BEAVEROver 42.5, best betbest betUSF −8.5, leanleanBEAVER gives USF 71% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
UAB
South Florida
UABSouth FloridaBEAVER’s card
Best betOver 42.5, best bet5.6 points off the line
- USF −8.5 lean, 0.2 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–USF) | 20–28 | – | |
| Spread | USF −8.7 | USF −8.5 | USF −8.5 |
| Total | 48.1 | 42.5 | Over 42.5 |
| USF win chance | 71% | −305 |
UAB by 14+
7%
UAB by 1–13
22%
USF by 1–13
34%
USF by 14+
37%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.6 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened USF −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.156 #126Offense EPA / play−0.079 #97
+0.042 #75Defense EPA / play allowed+0.020 #68
−2.5% #90Offense success rate−0.5% #72
+5.1% #113Defense success rate allowed+4.0% #102
−0.029 #97Rushing EPA / play+0.006 #84
−0.306 #133Passing EPA / play−0.192 #118
+0.085 #98Rush defense EPA allowed−0.073 #31
−0.059 #35Pass defense EPA allowed+0.152 #102
−8.2 #112Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.2 #98
+4.8 #97Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.7 #48
Situational
−2.2% #71Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.0% #90
+1.1% #77Passing-down success allowed+5.1% #118
−0.90 #108Points per drive−0.66 #103
+0.68 #103Points per drive allowed+0.10 #69
Trenches
+0.07 #75Line yards per rush−0.18 #117
+0.45 #126Line yards per rush allowed−0.13 #46
−1.9% #70Runs stuffed at the line+2.5% #127
−4.5% #124Opponent runs stuffed+3.1% #29
+1.1% #120Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #85
−2.0% #104Havoc created−0.8% #75
Big plays
−0.051 #95Rushing explosiveness−0.045 #93
+0.169 #49Passing explosiveness−0.190 #137
−0.44 #108Open-field yards per rush−0.50 #114
−0.202 #8Pass explosiveness allowed−0.105 #23
Style and schedule
59% #35Run rate56% #58
−11.1 #102Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.5 #131
UAB: last 5 games
| W30-17 | Covered | |
| L13-38 | Missed | |
| W33-14 | Missed | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| L14-21 | Push |
South Florida: last 5 games
| W29-2 | Covered | |
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| L13-17 | Missed | |
| W14-6 | Missed | |
| W59-17 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUABUSF
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The box score fills in after the game.
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyUABSouth Florida
UABSouth FloridaLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | USF −8.5 | 42.5 | UAB +245 · USF −305 |
| BEAVER fair line | USF −8.7 | 48.1 | UAB +245 · USF −245 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UAB | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 23.3 / 24.6 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 15.1 |
| -1.3 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| +1.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.1 |