BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Florida Atlantic at North Texas
Florida Atlantic5-2away
BEAVER projects29
DATCU Stadium, 73°, wind 8 mph
North Texas5-2home
BEAVER projects45
BEAVERUnder 77.5, leanleanUNT −13.5, leanleanBEAVER gives UNT 83% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Florida Atlantic
North Texas

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 77.5, lean3.2 points off the line
  • UNT −13.5 lean, 2.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (FAU–UNT)29–45–
SpreadUNT −16.0UNT −13.5UNT −13.5
Total74.377.5Under 77.5
UNT win chance83%−520
FAU by 14+
4%
FAU by 1–13
13%
UNT by 1–13
28%
UNT by 14+
55%

Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened UNT −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.017 #56Offense EPA / play+0.186 #8
+0.222 #135Defense EPA / play allowed+0.068 #84
+2.0% #48Offense success rate+6.0% #17
+4.6% #108Defense success rate allowed+4.8% #109
+0.044 #63Rushing EPA / play+0.173 #15
+0.002 #60Passing EPA / play+0.197 #12
+0.234 #138Rush defense EPA allowed−0.005 #60
+0.115 #96Pass defense EPA allowed+0.343 #137
+1.1 #59Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+10.3 #9
+13.4 #135Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+7.7 #120
Situational
+2.8% #31Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.7% #37
+4.7% #115Passing-down success allowed+2.0% #91
+0.99 #17Points per drive+0.91 #22
+1.78 #135Points per drive allowed+0.74 #107
Trenches
−0.01 #91Line yards per rush+0.27 #38
+0.12 #90Line yards per rush allowed−0.09 #56
−3.3% #48Runs stuffed at the line−3.1% #50
+0.3% #66Opponent runs stuffed−1.3% #86
−0.4% #97Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.8% #22
−2.6% #115Havoc created−0.9% #77
Big plays
+0.031 #59Rushing explosiveness+0.265 #3
−0.102 #133Passing explosiveness+0.143 #56
−0.91 #137Open-field yards per rush+0.57 #7
+0.138 #125Pass explosiveness allowed+0.073 #99
Style and schedule
48% #130Run rate52% #112
−15.4 #130Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.9 #87

Florida Atlantic: last 5 games

W51-49
vsRice
Missed
L24-56
atArmy
Missed
W66-10
vsTexas Southern
Covered
W45-17
atUL Monroe
Covered
W16-10
vsFIU
Covered

North Texas: last 5 games

W49-39
atNavy
Covered
W50-10
vsCharlotte
Covered
W45-44
atTulsa
Missed
W63-14
vsHouston Christian
Covered
L35-49
atTexas State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.24−0.14−0.05+0.05+0.15Entering week123456789Florida Atlantic · 1: −0.16Florida Atlantic · 2: −0.21Florida Atlantic · 3: −0.17Florida Atlantic · 4: −0.16Florida Atlantic · 5: −0.18Florida Atlantic · 6: −0.17Florida Atlantic · 7: −0.18Florida Atlantic · 8: −0.18Florida Atlantic · 9: −0.21North Texas · 1: −0.06North Texas · 2: −0.06North Texas · 3: +0.07North Texas · 4: −0.01North Texas · 5: +0.07North Texas · 6: +0.06North Texas · 7: +0.09North Texas · 8: +0.10North Texas · 9: +0.12
● Florida Atlantic● North Texas