College football scores › Week 9 › UConn at Air Force
BEAVEROver 53.5, leanleanAF −2.5, leanleanBEAVER gives AF 59% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
UConn
Air Force
UConnAir ForceBEAVER’s card
LeanOver 53.5, lean3.0 points off the line
- AF −2.5 lean, 1.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CONN–AF) | 26–30 | – | |
| Spread | AF −3.8 | AF −2.5 | AF −2.5 |
| Total | 56.5 | 53.5 | Over 53.5 |
| AF win chance | 59% | −148 |
CONN by 14+
13%
CONN by 1–13
27%
AF by 1–13
33%
AF by 14+
26%
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Air Force (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened AF −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.008 #64Offense EPA / play−0.012 #74
+0.074 #87Defense EPA / play allowed+0.132 #112
−2.5% #89Offense success rate+2.8% #40
+3.9% #101Defense success rate allowed+3.9% #100
+0.078 #41Rushing EPA / play+0.134 #27
−0.000 #62Passing EPA / play−0.657 #138
−0.014 #55Rush defense EPA allowed+0.097 #101
+0.196 #116Pass defense EPA allowed+0.177 #110
−0.6 #68Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.8 #94
+4.4 #93Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.6 #94
Situational
−2.6% #74Passing-down success (3rd & long)−6.5% #113
+2.9% #103Passing-down success allowed+2.6% #98
−0.20 #77Points per drive−0.34 #84
+0.43 #91Points per drive allowed+0.82 #113
Trenches
+0.22 #47Line yards per rush+0.47 #13
+0.16 #94Line yards per rush allowed+0.36 #121
−1.1% #81Runs stuffed at the line−7.7% #3
−1.7% #93Opponent runs stuffed−4.2% #123
−0.9% #80Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−7.5% #1
−0.6% #69Havoc created−3.9% #132
Big plays
+0.106 #28Rushing explosiveness+0.020 #66
+0.338 #5Passing explosiveness−0.018 #117
+0.41 #14Open-field yards per rush−0.55 #120
−0.034 #41Pass explosiveness allowed−0.000 #63
Style and schedule
57% #51Run rate88% #1
−15.2 #128Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.2 #129
UConn: last 5 games
| W35-16 | Covered | |
| W34-20 | Covered | |
| L41-42 | Covered | |
| L21-24 | Missed | |
| W48-20 | Covered |
Air Force: last 5 games
| L14-28 | Missed | |
| W41-31 | Covered | |
| W28-7 | Covered | |
| W14-9 | Covered | |
| W36-33 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCONNAF
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyUConnAir Force
UConnAir ForceLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | AF −2.5 | 53.5 | CONN +124 · AF −148 |
| BEAVER fair line | AF −3.8 | 56.5 | CONN +145 · AF −145 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CONN | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 35.6 / 23.9 | Points for / against | 28.4 / 20.9 |
| +11.7 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| +9.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.1 |
| 60.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.3 |