BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Oregon State at Fresno State
Oregon State5-2away
BEAVER projects29
Valley Children's Stadium, 63°, wind 9 mph
Fresno State4-3home
BEAVER projects24
BEAVERUnder 58.5, best betbest betFRES +5.5, leanleanBEAVER gives ORST 62% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Oregon State
Fresno State

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Under 58.5, best bet6.0 points off the line
  • FRES +5.5 lean, 0.5 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ORST–FRES)29–24–
SpreadORST −5.0ORST −5.5FRES +5.5
Total52.558.5Under 58.5
FRES win chance38%+185
ORST by 14+
28%
ORST by 1–13
34%
FRES by 1–13
26%
FRES by 14+
12%

Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Fresno State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.0 pts below Vegas (54% historically). Opened ORST −7.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.102 #26Offense EPA / play−0.057 #89
+0.044 #76Defense EPA / play allowed+0.005 #58
+3.2% #37Offense success rate−3.0% #94
−0.1% #60Defense success rate allowed+2.3% #87
+0.054 #55Rushing EPA / play−0.099 #123
+0.093 #32Passing EPA / play+0.052 #46
+0.048 #84Rush defense EPA allowed−0.027 #45
+0.012 #55Pass defense EPA allowed+0.088 #87
+6.1 #26Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.2 #81
−0.2 #62Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−0.9 #58
Situational
+4.3% #21Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.4% #49
−0.3% #61Passing-down success allowed+1.2% #81
+1.08 #14Points per drive−0.32 #83
+0.14 #71Points per drive allowed+0.29 #79
Trenches
+0.31 #34Line yards per rush−0.21 #118
+0.17 #96Line yards per rush allowed+0.03 #71
−6.2% #9Runs stuffed at the line+4.1% #132
−3.2% #112Opponent runs stuffed−0.2% #75
−3.5% #27Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.3% #47
−0.1% #58Havoc created+0.1% #55
Big plays
−0.088 #114Rushing explosiveness−0.055 #98
+0.217 #28Passing explosiveness+0.048 #96
−0.10 #69Open-field yards per rush+0.01 #50
+0.009 #71Pass explosiveness allowed+0.005 #67
Style and schedule
45% #136Run rate54% #85
−7.9 #82Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.3 #90

Oregon State: last 5 games

W48-30
vsWashington State
Missed
W66-14
vsSan Diego State
Covered
W56-26
atColorado State
Covered
W33-7
atUTEP
Covered
W52-17
vsMontana
Covered

Fresno State: last 5 games

L23-26
atSan Diego State
Missed
L31-38
vsBoise State
Covered
W26-6
atWashington State
Covered
W38-24
vsRice
Covered
W26-10
atSan José State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.18−0.10−0.02+0.05+0.13Entering week123456789Oregon State · 1: −0.16Oregon State · 2: −0.14Oregon State · 3: −0.08Oregon State · 4: −0.03Oregon State · 5: +0.04Oregon State · 6: +0.07Oregon State · 7: +0.11Oregon State · 8: +0.07Oregon State · 9: +0.06Fresno State · 1: −0.08Fresno State · 2: −0.13Fresno State · 3: −0.10Fresno State · 4: −0.06Fresno State · 5: −0.10Fresno State · 6: −0.01Fresno State · 7: −0.01Fresno State · 8: −0.06Fresno State · 9: −0.06
● Oregon State● Fresno State