BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Washington State at San Diego State
Washington State1-7away
BEAVER projects24
Snapdragon Stadium, 66°, wind 7 mph
San Diego State3-5home
BEAVER projects27
BEAVEROver 48.5, leanleanSDSU −2.5, leanleanBEAVER gives SDSU 58% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Washington State
San Diego State

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Over 48.5, lean1.9 points off the line
  • SDSU −2.5 lean, 0.6 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (WSU–SDSU)24–27–
SpreadSDSU −3.1SDSU −2.5SDSU −2.5
Total50.448.5Over 48.5
SDSU win chance58%−135
WSU by 14+
14%
WSU by 1–13
28%
SDSU by 1–13
33%
SDSU by 14+
24%

Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.149 #123Offense EPA / play−0.132 #115
+0.036 #73Defense EPA / play allowed+0.035 #72
−6.3% #129Offense success rate−6.1% #127
+0.1% #65Defense success rate allowed+5.4% #114
−0.051 #111Rushing EPA / play−0.026 #94
−0.222 #125Passing EPA / play−0.244 #129
+0.105 #104Rush defense EPA allowed+0.030 #77
−0.031 #40Pass defense EPA allowed+0.064 #75
−7.6 #109Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.8 #96
+2.3 #78Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+6.6 #108
Situational
−10.6% #134Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.8% #119
−3.1% #32Passing-down success allowed+2.0% #92
−1.00 #109Points per drive−0.62 #99
−0.02 #60Points per drive allowed+0.75 #109
Trenches
−0.02 #95Line yards per rush+0.05 #78
+0.09 #81Line yards per rush allowed+0.51 #132
+1.4% #116Runs stuffed at the line−0.2% #96
−0.3% #77Opponent runs stuffed−7.7% #138
+1.4% #123Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #86
−2.9% #118Havoc created−3.0% #121
Big plays
+0.119 #23Rushing explosiveness+0.092 #33
−0.139 #135Passing explosiveness+0.244 #21
−0.33 #96Open-field yards per rush−0.39 #103
+0.104 #113Pass explosiveness allowed−0.016 #58
Style and schedule
52% #110Run rate62% #16
−2.4 #44Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.1 #56

Washington State: last 5 games

L10-31
vsBoise State
Missed
L30-48
atOregon State
Covered
L16-17
atUtah State
Covered
L6-26
vsFresno State
Missed
L24-34
vsArizona
Covered

San Diego State: last 5 games

L49-56
atColorado State
Missed
W26-23
vsFresno State
Covered
L14-66
atOregon State
Missed
W31-29
vsTexas State
Covered
L16-41
atToledo
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.24−0.18−0.11−0.05+0.02Entering week123456789Washington State · 1: −0.09Washington State · 2: −0.06Washington State · 3: −0.11Washington State · 4: −0.13Washington State · 5: −0.16Washington State · 6: −0.22Washington State · 7: −0.21Washington State · 8: −0.17Washington State · 9: −0.18San Diego State · 1: −0.05San Diego State · 2: −0.14San Diego State · 3: −0.14San Diego State · 4: −0.20San Diego State · 5: −0.20San Diego State · 6: −0.19San Diego State · 7: −0.21San Diego State · 8: −0.16San Diego State · 9: −0.17
● Washington State● San Diego State