BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Texas State at Boise State
Texas State4-3away
BEAVER projects26
Albertsons Stadium, 54°, wind 14 mph
Boise StateNo. 206-1home
BEAVER projects35
BEAVERTXST +11.5, leanleanUnder 63.5, leanleanBEAVER gives BOIS 72% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Texas State
Boise State

BEAVER’s card

Lean
TXST +11.5, lean2.2 points off the line
  • Under 63.5 lean, 2.0 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (TXST–BOIS)26–35–
SpreadBOIS −9.3BOIS −11.5TXST +11.5
Total61.563.5Under 63.5
BOIS win chance72%−425
TXST by 14+
8%
TXST by 1–13
21%
BOIS by 1–13
33%
BOIS by 14+
39%

Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Texas State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened BOIS −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.106 #24Offense EPA / play+0.168 #12
+0.082 #89Defense EPA / play allowed−0.004 #51
+5.3% #20Offense success rate+4.6% #26
+3.1% #93Defense success rate allowed−2.6% #33
+0.154 #22Rushing EPA / play+0.191 #11
+0.103 #30Passing EPA / play+0.178 #14
−0.046 #39Rush defense EPA allowed+0.090 #100
+0.196 #115Pass defense EPA allowed−0.080 #31
+3.8 #39Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.2 #25
+4.0 #90Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.9 #39
Situational
+12.7% #1Passing-down success (3rd & long)+7.3% #11
+2.4% #93Passing-down success allowed+1.1% #79
+0.56 #32Points per drive+0.72 #26
+0.93 #117Points per drive allowed−0.24 #43
Trenches
+0.22 #46Line yards per rush+0.47 #14
−0.14 #45Line yards per rush allowed−0.15 #43
−2.4% #58Runs stuffed at the line−6.8% #8
+5.7% #10Opponent runs stuffed+4.7% #16
−3.0% #33Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.5% #5
−2.2% #108Havoc created+1.3% #30
Big plays
+0.056 #47Rushing explosiveness+0.121 #22
+0.172 #47Passing explosiveness+0.154 #55
+0.92 #2Open-field yards per rush+0.23 #28
−0.090 #26Pass explosiveness allowed+0.265 #136
Style and schedule
62% #17Run rate64% #12
−4.5 #62Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.2 #50

Texas State: last 5 games

W20-17
vsUtah State
Missed
W66-27
vsColorado State
Covered
L29-31
atSan Diego State
Missed
W63-10
vsIncarnate Word
Covered
W49-35
vsNorth Texas
Covered

Boise State: last 5 games

W31-10
atWashington State
Covered
W38-31
atFresno State
Missed
W37-18
vsUtah State
Missed
W32-7
atWestern Michigan
Covered
W38-24
vsSouth Dakota
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.08−0.02+0.05+0.12+0.19Entering week123456789Texas State · 1: −0.04Texas State · 2: −0.03Texas State · 3: −0.07Texas State · 4: +0.01Texas State · 5: +0.08Texas State · 6: +0.06Texas State · 7: +0.05Texas State · 8: +0.08Texas State · 9: +0.02Boise State · 1: +0.01Boise State · 2: +0.09Boise State · 3: +0.13Boise State · 4: +0.09Boise State · 5: +0.17Boise State · 6: +0.17Boise State · 7: +0.16Boise State · 8: +0.15Boise State · 9: +0.17
● Texas State● Boise State