BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Notre Dame at Navy
Notre DameNo. 56-1away
BEAVER projects42
Gillette Stadium, 53°, wind 7 mph
Navy2-5neutral site
BEAVER projects12
BEAVERUnder 55.5, leanleanNAVY +30.5, leanleanBEAVER gives ND 97% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Notre Dame
Navy

BEAVER’s card

Lean
Under 55.5, lean1.9 points off the line
  • NAVY +30.5 lean, 0.4 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ND–NAVY)42–12–
SpreadND −30.1ND −30.5NAVY +30.5
Total53.655.5Under 55.5
NAVY win chance3%+2000
ND by 14+
84%
ND by 1–13
13%
NAVY by 1–13
3%
NAVY by 14+
0%

Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for Navy (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened ND −28.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.256 #2Offense EPA / play−0.019 #75
−0.202 #2Defense EPA / play allowed+0.101 #100
+9.5% #6Offense success rate+1.0% #63
−8.4% #5Defense success rate allowed−0.4% #54
+0.221 #4Rushing EPA / play+0.096 #36
+0.277 #6Passing EPA / play+0.013 #54
−0.215 #2Rush defense EPA allowed−0.017 #52
−0.164 #14Pass defense EPA allowed+0.280 #133
+14.9 #2Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.8 #93
−11.4 #5Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.9 #98
Situational
−0.5% #56Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.5% #117
−4.2% #21Passing-down success allowed+1.6% #86
+2.69 #2Points per drive−0.69 #104
−1.02 #10Points per drive allowed+0.38 #86
Trenches
+0.38 #26Line yards per rush+0.40 #20
−0.37 #16Line yards per rush allowed−0.22 #35
−6.1% #10Runs stuffed at the line−5.1% #20
+4.1% #22Opponent runs stuffed+2.1% #45
−5.7% #7Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #65
+5.4% #2Havoc created−1.9% #101
Big plays
+0.063 #44Rushing explosiveness+0.102 #31
+0.041 #99Passing explosiveness+0.611 #1
+0.08 #43Open-field yards per rush+0.41 #13
−0.234 #5Pass explosiveness allowed+0.303 #137
Style and schedule
56% #57Run rate81% #3
−0.1 #30Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.8 #98

Notre Dame: last 5 games

L24-28
atBYU
Missed
W58-7
vsStanford
Covered
W37-26
atNorth Carolina
Missed
W49-10
atPurdue
Covered
W27-10
vsMichigan State
Missed

Navy: last 5 games

L39-49
vsNorth Texas
Missed
L34-38
atUTSA
Covered
W34-26
vsTulsa
Covered
L9-14
atAir Force
Missed
L20-24
atUAB
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.27−0.07+0.13+0.33+0.53Entering week123456789Notre Dame · 1: +0.33Notre Dame · 2: +0.37Notre Dame · 3: +0.45Notre Dame · 4: +0.39Notre Dame · 5: +0.44Notre Dame · 6: +0.42Notre Dame · 7: +0.47Notre Dame · 8: +0.46Notre Dame · 9: +0.46Navy · 1: −0.17Navy · 2: −0.16Navy · 3: −0.18Navy · 4: −0.18Navy · 5: −0.22Navy · 6: −0.16Navy · 7: −0.13Navy · 8: −0.07Navy · 9: −0.12
● Notre Dame● Navy