BEAVER
College football scores › Week 10 › Oregon at Ohio State
Oregon4-3away
BEAVER projects18
Ohio Stadium, 42°, wind 8 mph
Ohio StateNo. 26-1home
BEAVER projects31
BEAVEROSU −6, best betbest betUnder 52.5, leanleanBEAVER gives OSU 80% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Oregon
Ohio State

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
OSU −6, best bet7.2 points off the line
  • Under 52.5 lean, 3.3 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (ORE–OSU)18–31–
SpreadOSU −13.2OSU −6OSU −6
Total49.252.5Under 52.5
OSU win chance80%−258
ORE by 14+
4%
ORE by 1–13
16%
OSU by 1–13
32%
OSU by 14+
48%

Spread: 7.2 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.019 #52Offense EPA / play+0.187 #7
−0.186 #5Defense EPA / play allowed−0.181 #6
+1.8% #50Offense success rate+10.9% #2
−9.3% #4Defense success rate allowed−7.5% #9
+0.005 #85Rushing EPA / play+0.115 #31
+0.029 #49Passing EPA / play+0.248 #9
−0.143 #14Rush defense EPA allowed−0.172 #9
−0.220 #6Pass defense EPA allowed−0.230 #5
+7.4 #15Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+13.3 #5
−8.8 #11Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−12.7 #2
Situational
−0.1% #51Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.6% #17
−8.6% #5Passing-down success allowed−2.2% #42
+1.08 #15Points per drive+1.90 #5
−1.28 #6Points per drive allowed−1.30 #5
Trenches
+0.13 #60Line yards per rush+0.40 #21
−0.51 #8Line yards per rush allowed−0.39 #15
−2.3% #60Runs stuffed at the line−4.8% #23
+2.9% #32Opponent runs stuffed+2.9% #31
−0.8% #84Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.9% #20
+2.8% #17Havoc created+2.6% #19
Big plays
−0.074 #107Rushing explosiveness−0.004 #78
+0.061 #91Passing explosiveness+0.261 #20
−0.05 #56Open-field yards per rush−0.22 #84
−0.042 #36Pass explosiveness allowed+0.007 #70
Style and schedule
52% #106Run rate57% #50
+2.5 #16Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.3 #23

Oregon: last 5 games

L10-21
atIllinois
Missed
W17-14
vsNebraska
Missed
L15-17
vsUCLA
Missed
W41-27
atUSC
Covered
W84-0
vsPortland State
Covered

Ohio State: last 5 games

W19-15
atIndiana
Covered
W45-16
vsMaryland
Missed
W31-14
atIowa
Covered
W42-19
vsIllinois
Missed
W59-3
vsKent State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.09+0.21+0.33+0.46Entering week12345678910Oregon · 1: +0.33Oregon · 2: +0.25Oregon · 3: +0.17Oregon · 4: +0.20Oregon · 5: +0.29Oregon · 6: +0.29Oregon · 7: +0.21Oregon · 8: +0.21Oregon · 9: +0.21Oregon · 10: +0.21Ohio State · 1: +0.36Ohio State · 2: +0.42Ohio State · 3: +0.42Ohio State · 4: +0.40Ohio State · 5: +0.36Ohio State · 6: +0.39Ohio State · 7: +0.36Ohio State · 8: +0.37Ohio State · 9: +0.37Ohio State · 10: +0.37
● Oregon● Ohio State