College football scores › Week 10 › Michigan State at Michigan
Michigan Stadium, 33°, wind 7 mph
BEAVERUnder 50.5, best betbest betMSU +16.5, leanleanBEAVER gives MICH 82% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Michigan State
Michigan
Michigan StateMichiganBEAVER’s card
Best betUnder 50.5, best bet8.8 points off the line
- MSU +16.5 lean, 2.3 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MSU–MICH) | 14–28 | – | |
| Spread | MICH −14.2 | MICH −16.5 | MSU +16.5 |
| Total | 41.7 | 50.5 | Under 50.5 |
| MICH win chance | 82% | −950 |
MSU by 14+
3%
MSU by 1–13
15%
MICH by 1–13
32%
MICH by 14+
50%
Spread: 2.3 pts better than Vegas for Michigan State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 8.8 pts below Vegas (54% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.081 #98Offense EPA / play−0.006 #69
+0.003 #57Defense EPA / play allowed−0.145 #13
+1.6% #55Offense success rate+1.0% #62
+0.3% #70Defense success rate allowed−4.5% #22
−0.028 #96Rushing EPA / play+0.066 #47
−0.102 #92Passing EPA / play−0.063 #82
−0.060 #34Rush defense EPA allowed−0.103 #22
+0.052 #71Pass defense EPA allowed−0.252 #1
−2.8 #79Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.1 #73
−2.8 #40Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.3 #20
Situational
+2.0% #35Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.3% #22
−0.6% #58Passing-down success allowed−2.0% #44
−0.19 #76Points per drive−0.21 #78
−0.43 #38Points per drive allowed−1.01 #13
Trenches
+0.09 #73Line yards per rush+0.23 #45
−0.12 #50Line yards per rush allowed−0.11 #53
−3.0% #51Runs stuffed at the line−5.5% #17
+4.0% #23Opponent runs stuffed+0.2% #68
−1.4% #70Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.5% #94
−1.3% #87Havoc created+0.2% #51
Big plays
−0.136 #123Rushing explosiveness+0.024 #63
−0.011 #112Passing explosiveness+0.051 #95
−0.52 #118Open-field yards per rush−0.22 #85
+0.109 #116Pass explosiveness allowed−0.055 #33
Style and schedule
57% #54Run rate61% #25
+7.7 #4Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.7 #14
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L10-28 | Missed | |
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L37-38 | Covered | |
| L3-31 | Missed | |
| L13-31 | Missed |
Michigan: last 5 games
| L6-13 | Covered | |
| W21-18 | Missed | |
| L14-20 | Missed | |
| L19-20 | Missed | |
| W52-17 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMSUMICH
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyMichigan StateMichigan
Michigan StateMichiganLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MICH −16.5 | 50.5 | MSU +625 · MICH −950 |
| BEAVER fair line | MICH −14.2 | 41.7 | MSU +458 · MICH −458 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 0-5 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Home | 4-2 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-3-1 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 19.9 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 20.3 / 15.7 |
| -5.9 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |