BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Ohio State at USC
Ohio StateNo. 26-1away
BEAVER projects35
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, 66°, wind 9 mph
USC6-2home
BEAVER projects24
BEAVEROver 51.5, best betbest betOSU −6.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives OSU 75% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Ohio State
USC

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
Over 51.5, best bet8.0 points off the line
  • OSU −6.5 best bet, 4.4 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (OSU–USC)35–24–
SpreadOSU −10.9OSU −6.5OSU −6.5
Total59.551.5Over 51.5
USC win chance25%+205
OSU by 14+
42%
OSU by 1–13
33%
USC by 1–13
19%
USC by 14+
6%

Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 8.0 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened OSU −7.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.187 #7Offense EPA / play+0.182 #9
−0.181 #6Defense EPA / play allowed+0.014 #66
+10.9% #2Offense success rate+9.5% #7
−7.5% #9Defense success rate allowed−0.8% #48
+0.115 #31Rushing EPA / play+0.040 #67
+0.248 #9Passing EPA / play+0.317 #3
−0.172 #9Rush defense EPA allowed−0.024 #47
−0.230 #5Pass defense EPA allowed+0.097 #89
+13.3 #5Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.8 #12
−12.7 #2Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.5 #51
Situational
+5.6% #17Passing-down success (3rd & long)+10.8% #4
−2.2% #42Passing-down success allowed+0.4% #68
+1.90 #5Points per drive+1.36 #9
−1.30 #5Points per drive allowed−0.12 #52
Trenches
+0.40 #21Line yards per rush+0.22 #48
−0.39 #15Line yards per rush allowed−0.11 #54
−4.8% #23Runs stuffed at the line−1.0% #82
+2.9% #31Opponent runs stuffed+0.4% #63
−3.9% #20Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.3% #9
+2.6% #19Havoc created−2.7% #116
Big plays
−0.004 #78Rushing explosiveness−0.184 #132
+0.261 #20Passing explosiveness+0.166 #51
−0.22 #84Open-field yards per rush−0.56 #122
+0.007 #70Pass explosiveness allowed+0.145 #129
Style and schedule
57% #50Run rate52% #108
+1.3 #23Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.9 #27

Ohio State: last 5 games

W19-15
atIndiana
Covered
W45-16
vsMaryland
Missed
W31-14
atIowa
Covered
W42-19
vsIllinois
Missed
W59-3
vsKent State
Covered

USC: last 5 games

L7-24
atWisconsin
Missed
W31-23
atPenn State
Covered
W25-21
vsWashington
Missed
L27-41
vsOregon
Missed
W42-35
atRutgers
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.09+0.21+0.33+0.46Entering week123456789Ohio State · 1: +0.36Ohio State · 2: +0.42Ohio State · 3: +0.42Ohio State · 4: +0.40Ohio State · 5: +0.36Ohio State · 6: +0.39Ohio State · 7: +0.36Ohio State · 8: +0.37Ohio State · 9: +0.37USC · 1: +0.24USC · 2: +0.25USC · 3: +0.19USC · 4: +0.17USC · 5: +0.16USC · 6: +0.16USC · 7: +0.18USC · 8: +0.20USC · 9: +0.17
● Ohio State● USC