College football scores › Week 9 › Nevada at UCLA
BEAVEROver 44.5, best betbest betUCLA −22.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives UCLA 96% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Nevada
UCLA
NevadaUCLABEAVER’s card
Best betOver 44.5, best bet5.7 points off the line
- UCLA −22.5 best bet, 5.5 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NEV–UCLA) | 11–39 | – | |
| Spread | UCLA −28.0 | UCLA −22.5 | UCLA −22.5 |
| Total | 50.2 | 44.5 | Over 44.5 |
| UCLA win chance | 96% | −1800 |
NEV by 14+
0%
NEV by 1–13
3%
UCLA by 1–13
15%
UCLA by 14+
81%
Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.7 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened UCLA −23.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.143 #122Offense EPA / play+0.055 #38
+0.093 #96Defense EPA / play allowed−0.181 #8
−5.5% #118Offense success rate+4.6% #24
−0.1% #62Defense success rate allowed−5.2% #17
−0.031 #100Rushing EPA / play+0.158 #19
−0.220 #123Passing EPA / play−0.062 #81
+0.080 #95Rush defense EPA allowed−0.185 #6
+0.210 #119Pass defense EPA allowed−0.201 #11
−6.9 #107Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.6 #29
+3.9 #89Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.4 #12
Situational
−4.5% #98Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.7% #59
−0.8% #56Passing-down success allowed−9.1% #2
−1.25 #123Points per drive+0.37 #49
+0.34 #81Points per drive allowed−1.01 #12
Trenches
−0.21 #119Line yards per rush+0.56 #6
+0.23 #104Line yards per rush allowed−0.29 #30
+3.3% #131Runs stuffed at the line−4.5% #28
−3.9% #120Opponent runs stuffed+4.4% #19
+0.3% #109Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #48
−1.1% #83Havoc created+3.3% #14
Big plays
+0.029 #61Rushing explosiveness−0.038 #91
+0.225 #27Passing explosiveness+0.058 #94
−0.05 #57Open-field yards per rush+0.68 #5
+0.141 #127Pass explosiveness allowed+0.104 #112
Style and schedule
59% #34Run rate60% #27
−13.7 #115Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.2 #31
Nevada: last 5 games
| W28-13 | Covered | |
| L17-31 | Covered | |
| W30-13 | Covered | |
| L33-36 | Covered | |
| L20-27 | Missed |
UCLA: last 5 games
| W28-10 | Covered | |
| W17-7 | Covered | |
| W17-15 | Covered | |
| W54-3 | Covered | |
| W52-38 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNEVUCLA
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyNevadaUCLA
NevadaUCLALines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UCLA −22.5 | 44.5 | NEV +1000 · UCLA −1800 |
| BEAVER fair line | UCLA −28 | 50.2 | NEV +2532 · UCLA −2532 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NEV | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 7-0 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 5-0 |
| 2-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 3-0 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 7-0 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 26.3 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 15.3 |
| +4.3 | Avg margin | +19.1 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.4 |
| 64.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.3 |