College football scores › Week 9 › Michigan at Rutgers
BEAVEROver 46.5, best betbest betRUTG +14, best betbest betBEAVER gives MICH 73% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Michigan
Rutgers
MichiganRutgersBEAVER’s card
Best betOver 46.5, best bet8.7 points off the line
- RUTG +14 best bet, 4.2 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MICH–RUTG) | 33–23 | – | |
| Spread | MICH −9.8 | MICH −14 | RUTG +14 |
| Total | 55.2 | 46.5 | Over 46.5 |
| RUTG win chance | 27% | +440 |
MICH by 14+
40%
MICH by 1–13
33%
RUTG by 1–13
20%
RUTG by 14+
7%
Spread: 4.2 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 8.7 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.006 #69Offense EPA / play+0.009 #63
−0.145 #13Defense EPA / play allowed+0.163 #123
+1.0% #62Offense success rate+2.3% #45
−4.5% #22Defense success rate allowed+6.2% #125
+0.066 #47Rushing EPA / play+0.014 #80
−0.063 #82Passing EPA / play+0.062 #42
−0.103 #22Rush defense EPA allowed+0.209 #135
−0.252 #1Pass defense EPA allowed+0.160 #104
−2.1 #73Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.7 #60
−7.3 #20Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.1 #123
Situational
+4.3% #22Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.5% #19
−2.0% #44Passing-down success allowed+4.3% #110
−0.21 #78Points per drive+0.19 #57
−1.01 #13Points per drive allowed+0.91 #116
Trenches
+0.23 #45Line yards per rush+0.15 #58
−0.11 #53Line yards per rush allowed+0.20 #102
−5.5% #17Runs stuffed at the line−4.8% #25
+0.2% #68Opponent runs stuffed+0.1% #70
−0.5% #94Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #87
+0.2% #51Havoc created−2.5% #113
Big plays
+0.024 #63Rushing explosiveness−0.000 #76
+0.051 #95Passing explosiveness+0.335 #6
−0.22 #85Open-field yards per rush+0.05 #46
−0.055 #33Pass explosiveness allowed−0.042 #38
Style and schedule
61% #25Run rate57% #53
+2.7 #14Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.6 #63
Michigan: last 5 games
| L6-13 | Covered | |
| W21-18 | Missed | |
| L14-20 | Missed | |
| L19-20 | Missed | |
| W52-17 | Covered |
Rutgers: last 5 games
| L14-42 | Missed | |
| W37-30 | Covered | |
| L15-47 | Missed | |
| W58-7 | Covered | |
| L35-42 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMICHRUTG
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyMichiganRutgers
MichiganRutgersLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MICH −14 | 46.5 | MICH −600 · RUTG +440 |
| BEAVER fair line | MICH −9.8 | 55.2 | MICH −269 · RUTG +269 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MICH | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 4-2 | Home | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 20.3 / 15.7 | Points for / against | 28.7 / 33.3 |
| +4.6 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.9 |