BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Purdue at Penn State
Purdue3-4away
BEAVER projects24
Beaver Stadium, 53°, wind 3 mph
Penn State3-4home
BEAVER projects31
BEAVERPUR +7.5, leanleanUnder 54.5, leanleanBEAVER gives PSU 67% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Purdue
Penn State

BEAVER’s card

Lean
PUR +7.5, lean0.3 points off the line
  • Under 54.5 lean, 0.1 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (PUR–PSU)24–31–
SpreadPSU −7.2PSU −7.5PUR +7.5
Total54.454.5Under 54.5
PSU win chance67%−290
PUR by 14+
9%
PUR by 1–13
23%
PSU by 1–13
34%
PSU by 14+
33%

Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for Purdue (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened PSU −8.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.100 #27Offense EPA / play+0.027 #48
+0.110 #105Defense EPA / play allowed−0.036 #41
+3.0% #39Offense success rate−0.4% #71
+3.0% #92Defense success rate allowed−2.4% #38
+0.055 #54Rushing EPA / play−0.049 #110
+0.159 #18Passing EPA / play+0.142 #25
+0.059 #87Rush defense EPA allowed+0.090 #99
+0.215 #121Pass defense EPA allowed−0.211 #8
+4.2 #37Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #46
+3.6 #85Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #29
Situational
+2.3% #33Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.0% #47
+6.6% #125Passing-down success allowed−3.5% #27
+0.41 #46Points per drive+0.51 #38
+0.75 #108Points per drive allowed−0.57 #32
Trenches
−0.05 #98Line yards per rush−0.13 #114
+0.13 #91Line yards per rush allowed−0.17 #41
−3.6% #40Runs stuffed at the line−3.6% #39
−1.2% #85Opponent runs stuffed+4.2% #21
−3.0% #35Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.9% #55
−0.4% #64Havoc created+1.0% #35
Big plays
+0.104 #29Rushing explosiveness−0.103 #118
+0.104 #72Passing explosiveness+0.168 #50
−0.08 #63Open-field yards per rush−0.45 #111
+0.213 #132Pass explosiveness allowed−0.301 #2
Style and schedule
54% #91Run rate53% #100
+4.1 #9Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.4 #35

Purdue: last 5 games

L26-38
vsWashington
Missed
W41-13
vsMinnesota
Covered
W24-17
atIllinois
Covered
L10-49
vsNotre Dame
Missed
L38-52
atUCLA
Missed

Penn State: last 5 games

L18-21
atMichigan
Covered
L23-31
vsUSC
Missed
L13-34
atNorthwestern
Missed
L20-24
vsWisconsin
Missed
W55-13
vsBuffalo
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.11−0.02+0.06+0.15+0.23Entering week123456789Purdue · 1: −0.05Purdue · 2: −0.09Purdue · 3: −0.06Purdue · 4: −0.06Purdue · 5: −0.06Purdue · 6: −0.01Purdue · 7: +0.03Purdue · 8: −0.02Purdue · 9: −0.01Penn State · 1: +0.09Penn State · 2: +0.17Penn State · 3: +0.15Penn State · 4: +0.21Penn State · 5: +0.11Penn State · 6: +0.12Penn State · 7: +0.06Penn State · 8: +0.05Penn State · 9: +0.06
● Purdue● Penn State