BEAVER
College football scores › Week 9 › Northwestern at Oregon
NorthwesternNo. 206-1away
BEAVER projects21
Autzen Stadium, 56°, wind 4 mph
Oregon4-3home
BEAVER projects30
BEAVERORE −3.5, best betbest betOver 47.5, best betbest betBEAVER gives ORE 72% to win

Lines

Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.
SpreadTotalMoney
Northwestern
Oregon

BEAVER’s card

Best bet
ORE −3.5, best bet5.5 points off the line
  • Over 47.5 best bet, 4.3 points off the line

BEAVER against the market

Updates until kickoff
BEAVERMarketCall
Score (NU–ORE)21–30–
SpreadORE −9.0ORE −3.5ORE −3.5
Total51.847.5Over 47.5
ORE win chance72%−175
NU by 14+
7%
NU by 1–13
21%
ORE by 1–13
34%
ORE by 14+
38%

Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened ORE −7.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.179 #11Offense EPA / play+0.019 #52
−0.027 #43Defense EPA / play allowed−0.186 #5
+7.5% #12Offense success rate+1.8% #50
+1.2% #81Defense success rate allowed−9.3% #4
+0.173 #14Rushing EPA / play+0.005 #85
+0.156 #19Passing EPA / play+0.029 #49
+0.051 #86Rush defense EPA allowed−0.143 #14
−0.137 #17Pass defense EPA allowed−0.220 #6
+5.2 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.4 #15
−6.4 #25Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.8 #11
Situational
+7.2% #12Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.1% #51
−2.6% #40Passing-down success allowed−8.6% #5
+0.46 #42Points per drive+1.08 #15
−0.69 #25Points per drive allowed−1.28 #6
Trenches
+0.28 #36Line yards per rush+0.13 #60
+0.27 #110Line yards per rush allowed−0.51 #8
−3.6% #41Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #60
−1.7% #95Opponent runs stuffed+2.9% #32
−1.3% #71Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #84
+0.5% #44Havoc created+2.8% #17
Big plays
+0.090 #36Rushing explosiveness−0.074 #107
+0.095 #80Passing explosiveness+0.061 #91
+0.42 #12Open-field yards per rush−0.05 #56
−0.173 #10Pass explosiveness allowed−0.042 #36
Style and schedule
60% #33Run rate52% #106
−2.1 #41Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+2.5 #16

Northwestern: last 5 games

W42-14
vsRutgers
Covered
W24-21
atMichigan State
Missed
W45-14
vsBall State
Missed
W34-13
vsPenn State
Covered
L23-29
atIndiana
Covered

Oregon: last 5 games

L10-21
atIllinois
Missed
W17-14
vsNebraska
Missed
L15-17
vsUCLA
Missed
W41-27
atUSC
Covered
W84-0
vsPortland State
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04+0.06+0.16+0.26+0.36Entering week123456789Northwestern · 1: −0.01Northwestern · 2: +0.01Northwestern · 3: +0.02Northwestern · 4: +0.08Northwestern · 5: +0.14Northwestern · 6: +0.18Northwestern · 7: +0.18Northwestern · 8: +0.18Northwestern · 9: +0.21Oregon · 1: +0.33Oregon · 2: +0.25Oregon · 3: +0.17Oregon · 4: +0.20Oregon · 5: +0.29Oregon · 6: +0.29Oregon · 7: +0.21Oregon · 8: +0.21Oregon · 9: +0.21
● Northwestern● Oregon