College football scores › Week 9 › Washington at Nebraska
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), 56°, wind 4 mph
BEAVERNEB −7.5, best betbest betOver 49.5, leanleanBEAVER gives NEB 81% to win
Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoney
Washington
Nebraska
WashingtonNebraskaBEAVER’s card
Best betNEB −7.5, best bet6.5 points off the line
- Over 49.5 lean, 3.0 points off the line
BEAVER against the market
Updates until kickoff| BEAVER | Market | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WASH–NEB) | 19–33 | – | |
| Spread | NEB −14.0 | NEB −7.5 | NEB −7.5 |
| Total | 52.5 | 49.5 | Over 49.5 |
| NEB win chance | 81% | −310 |
WASH by 14+
4%
WASH by 1–13
15%
NEB by 1–13
31%
NEB by 14+
50%
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened NEB −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.012 #59Offense EPA / play+0.129 #20
−0.049 #35Defense EPA / play allowed−0.088 #20
+1.8% #49Offense success rate+3.5% #33
−0.7% #49Defense success rate allowed−5.8% #13
−0.038 #104Rushing EPA / play+0.209 #7
+0.086 #35Passing EPA / play+0.072 #39
−0.042 #41Rush defense EPA allowed−0.001 #63
−0.004 #49Pass defense EPA allowed−0.191 #12
+0.0 #65Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.7 #20
−1.4 #52Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.2 #22
Situational
−4.6% #100Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.9% #13
−0.2% #62Passing-down success allowed−9.0% #3
−0.17 #75Points per drive+0.81 #23
−0.23 #44Points per drive allowed−0.83 #18
Trenches
−0.02 #94Line yards per rush+0.27 #41
−0.18 #40Line yards per rush allowed−0.12 #51
+0.3% #107Runs stuffed at the line−2.0% #69
+5.6% #12Opponent runs stuffed+1.7% #52
−1.2% #73Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.6% #42
+2.0% #24Havoc created+3.3% #13
Big plays
−0.109 #122Rushing explosiveness+0.297 #2
−0.011 #114Passing explosiveness+0.136 #60
−0.11 #74Open-field yards per rush+0.44 #11
+0.049 #87Pass explosiveness allowed−0.004 #62
Style and schedule
49% #127Run rate55% #68
−4.4 #61Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.8 #39
Washington: last 5 games
| W38-26 | Covered | |
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| L21-25 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| W48-16 | Missed |
Nebraska: last 5 games
| L14-17 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W48-23 | Covered | |
| W31-13 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWASHNEB
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Lines
Tap a price to add it to your slip. Circled is BEAVER’s pick: solid for a best bet, dashed for a lean.SpreadTotalMoneyWashingtonNebraska
WashingtonNebraskaLines
latest from each book| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | NEB −7.5 | 49.5 | WASH +250 · NEB −310 |
| BEAVER fair line | NEB −14 | 52.5 | WASH +429 · NEB −429 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WASH | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Home | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 27.9 / 22.7 | Points for / against | 35.6 / 15.4 |
| +5.1 | Avg margin | +20.1 |
| -9.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.4 |